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SOFTS-Cocoa ends up as Ivory Coast's Gbagbo holds on

Published 04/06/2011, 02:59 PM
Updated 04/06/2011, 03:04 PM

* Conflict in Ivory Coast believed to be near conclusion

* Arabica coffee falls back after sharp advance on Tuesday

* Sugar prices remain rangebound (Updates prices, table)

By Marcy Nicholson and Sarah McFarlane

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Cocoa futures ended firmer on Wednesday, recouping recent losses as the prolonged conflict between presidential rivals in top grower Ivory Coast failed to be resolved as quickly as hoped.

Tuesday's optimism for a near-term resumption of cocoa exports dimmed as forces loyal to presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara launched a heavy attack on the bunker where Laurent Gbagbo was defying efforts to force him to cede power.

Coffee and sugar markets weakened.

ICE July cocoa gained $21 to finish at $3,014 a tonne in above-average volume, with position rolling out of the spot contract boosting activity ahead of its first notice day April 15.

Liffe July cocoa rose 10 pounds to close at 1,921 pounds a tonne.

"It's a combination of profit-taking and a short-covering rally and Gbagbo still has not formally accepted surrender terms imposed by Ouattara and the U.N.," said a veteran cocoa dealer in New York.

A slower return to normal business than the market had expected in Ivory Coast and a weaker U.S. dollar also helped lift prices, he said.

Negotiations led by the United Nations and France aimed at securing the departure of Gbagbo have failed, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said, although the conflict was believed to be near a conclusion by many within the cocoa industry.

The market has stabilized after the July contract fell to $2,940 on Friday, the lowest level for the second month since mid-January, and remains about 20 percent below a 32-year peak set in early March at $3,775 per tonne.

Prices rose early last month as the conflict and related European Union sanctions kept exports from Ivory Coast at a virtual standstill, leaving an estimated 450,000 tonnes sitting in warehouses in the world's top grower.

Jonathan Parkman, joint head of agriculture at Marex Financial, told Reuters Insider on Wednesday 100,000-150,000 tonnes of the cocoa was unhedged and this could have a bigger impact on prices than the resumption of shipmentswhen holding physical cocoa. Increased hedging is likely to weigh on futures prices.

"Most of the reports say the damage has not been too bad," Parkman said, referring to the roughly 450,000 tonnes believed to be in warehouses. "It will be usable."

SUGAR SLIPS

Sugar futures reeled from investor liquidation, spread trade and arriving supplies from the harvest in the important center-south region of top grower Brazil.

May raws on ICE dropped 0.84 cent or 3 percent to finish at 26.71 cents per lb, as strong technical resistance at around 28 cents remained. May whites on Liffe dropped $16.50 or 2.3 percent to close at $705.80 a tonne.

"There's been a lot of spreads, a lot of liquidation trade. We're getting into the Brazil harvest. That's keeping a lid on this thing," said Jack Scoville, analyst for brokers The Price Group in Chicago.

A bigger-than-expected Thai crop and talk that the world's second-biggest producer India could authorize more sugar exports weighed on prices. Modest volumes of activity made the market vulnerable to choppy trade, dealers said.

"A further failure to close above 28.00 cents (on May raws) tonight will probably give the bears impetus to flush out recent longs. Overall it seems safer to sell a rally than buy a dip at present," brokers Sucden Financial said in a market note.

Top sugar grower Brazil wants to increase regulation of the domestic ethanol market to ensure output, signaling a move that could have major implications for global sugar supplies.

Sugar can be processed into the alternative energy source ethanol.

Arabica coffee futures on ICE corrected lower after surging nearly 5 percent on heavy short-covering on Tuesday.

May arabicas fell 3.10 cents or 1.2 percent to close at $2.6515 per lb.

Robusta coffee futures on Liffe also corrected lower, after the May premium over July more than tripled to $100 on Tuesday.

May robusta coffee futures fell $26 to close at $2,472 a tonne while July eased $9 to end at $2,389 per tonne. (Additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in London and Rene Pastor in New York; Editing by Dale Hudson)

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