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SOFTS-Arabicas rally near 34-year high, robustas surge

Published 04/26/2011, 01:22 PM
Updated 04/26/2011, 01:24 PM
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* Trade focused on May raw sugar expiry on April 29

* Arabicas underpinned by shortage of high-quality beans

* Cocoa trade tracks progress of West African mid crops (Recasts, adds byline, dateline, was NEW YORK. Adds analyst comment, price table, updates prices)

By Marcy Nicholson and David Brough

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - ICE arabica coffee futures climbed on Tuesday, erasing early losses and getting close to last week's 34-year peak as commercials nibbled and concerns about supplies for high-quality beans lured investor buying.

Robusta coffee on Liffe tracked arabica's move and hit a contract high in its most volatile session in more than two years as dealers focused on the May/July spread after the spot contract spent two weeks at a steep premium.

Raw sugar was mixed in choppy dealings as the market focused on the May contract expiry on Friday.

Cocoa inched up in rangebound dealings as dealers awaited news on the condition of the mid crops in the key producing region of West Africa and tracked the slow resumption of exports after a civil war in top grower Ivory Coast.

Arabica futures turned higher in light volume after testing lower levels where roaster buying provided a lift. The greenback fell and helped lift coffee prices, dealers said.

"Overall, the market is still in an uptrend mode and we have been finding very little selling out of origin," said Rodrigo Costa, vice-president of Institutional Sales for Newedge USA.

ICE July arabica coffee reversed early losses and climbed 6.55 cents or 2.3 percent to $2.9735 per lb at 1659 GMT, near the 34-year high of $3.0250 hit on April 20.

"It's more about the spec flow. They liquidate, they buy it back," Costa said, referring to Monday's lower dealings.

The International Coffee Organization has estimated coffee stocks in producing countries at the beginning of the 2010/11 crop year were at the lowest level since it began keeping records in 1965.

Robusta coffee futures surged to a four-week top, trading in an exceptionally wide $190 range in heavy volume after the Easter holiday break.

Dealers said the market continued to keep a close watch on the May/July spread with the open interest on the front month still at a comparatively high 27,602 lots one week before first notice day.

The spread, which was trading at a backwardation of more than $100 earlier this month, has now moved to a contango of around $40, lessening concern about a potential squeeze.

Liffe July robustas closed $67 firmer at $2,502 a tonne.

Cocoa futures edged up in light volumes, with the focus on top producer Ivory Coast as dealers monitored the West African mid crops, which saw good development in Ivory Coast.

ICE second-month, July cocoa rose $33 or 1.1 percent to close at $3,093 per tonne, while London July cocoa climbed 17 pounds to finish at 1,907 pounds per tonne.

"Fundamentally it's not really in a bullish place but people might not yet be willing to buy into the Ivory Coast situation as settled or things getting back on line as quickly as some would hope," said Bill Raffety, senior analyst for futures brokerage Penson Futures in New York.

Raw sugar futures on ICE were choppy, with near-term pressure on expectations of ample production from Brazil and Thailand, and the possibility of further unrestricted exports by India, which would boost supplies to the market.

Dealers focused on the expiry of the ICE May raw sugar futures contract on April 29, with open interest just below a hefty 60,000 lots.

Nick Penney of brokerage Sucden Financial in London said the availability of Thai sugars could reduce pressure on Brazilian ports in meeting international demand.

"It seems worries over the knock on effect of large vessel lineups at Brazilian ports may be holding this (July/October) spread up," he said.

ICE July raw sugar futures fell 0.11 cent or 0.5 percent to trade at 23.29 cents a lb at 1702 GMT. London August white sugar finished down $6 at $633.10 per tonne. * Prices as of 1703 GMT Product Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct ICE sugar 25.04 -0.03 -0.12 32.12 -22.04 ICE coffee 297.55 6.75 +2.32 241.80 23.06 ICE cocoa 3094.00 34.00 +1.11 3052.00 1.38 Liffe sugar 633.00 -6.10 -0.95 777.50 -18.59 Liffe coffee 2502.00 67.00 +2.75 2097.00 19.31 Liffe cocoa 1906.00 16.00 +0.85 2029.00 -6.06 CRB index 365.77 -0.79 -0.22 332.80 9.91 Crude oil 111.81 -0.47 -0.42 91.38 22.36 Euro/dlr 1.46 0.02 +1.34 1.34 9.40 * ICE sugar and ICE coffee in cents per lb, ICE cocoa, Liffe sugar and Liffe coffee in dollars per tonne. Liffe cocoa in pounds per tonne.

(Editing by Rene Pastor)

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