💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

PRECIOUS-Volatile silver cuts early gain toward 1980 record

Published 04/25/2011, 04:55 PM
PMC
-
GC
-
SI
-
PA
-
PL
-

* US silver reverses after topping $49/oz in record volume

* Silver flat after CME raises margins; volatility spikes

* Price rally, volatility spook silver manufacturers

* Spot gold moving up and down in tandem with silver

* Coming up: US May silver options set to expire Tuesday

(Recasts, adds comments, updates market activity)

By Frank Tang

NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - Silver surged as much as 8 percent on Monday before pulling back sharply when a failure to pierce the all time high from 1980 unleashed a wave of technical selling amid record volume in U.S. futures.

After briefly dipping into negative territory midmorning as speculators sharply took profits near the $50 psychological level, silver later found its footing again. The metal traded largely flat, steadying at just below $47 after the CME Group raised the maintenance margins of silver futures by 9.2 percent. [ID:nL3E7FP2EW]

Gold prices also recoiled from early gains of nearly 1 percent after touching a seventh successive record high with volatility spiking to its highest since November.

The whipsaw in silver prices amid otherwise thin trading market conditions was a stark reminder of the volatile nature of this year's best-performing major commodity, which has gained about 150 percent since the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled new easing measures last August. Silver has risen for nine straight days, matching a record winning streak from 2008.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Silver five-minute chart http://link.reuters.com/vyp29r

Graphic on gold, silver prices http://r.reuters.com/xup29r

Technical view on silver [ID:nL3E7FB1AY]

TIMELINE-A brief history of silver [ID:nL3E7CJ0DO]

ANALYSTS VIEW-Silver's bull run seen to continue

[ID:nL3E7FI1AA]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

"Silver has transformed itself from an inflation hedge to a speculation tool," said Hakan Kaya, commodities portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, which manages about $190 billion client assets. "At current prices, we find it highly overvalued with no fundamental reasons backing it up."

While often overshadowed by gold, the smaller silver market has handily outpaced the yellow metal's 25 percent gains over the same period. Prices look set to challenge the record $49.48 an ounce from three decades ago when Texan brothers William Hebert and Nelson Bunker Hunt sought to corner the market.

Spot silver was up 1.4 percent at $47.34 an ounce by 3:39 p.m. EDT (1939 GMT), sharply below a session high of $49.31.

Spot gold was at $1,509,60 an ounce, up 0.4 percent, well off an a record high of $1,518.10 set earlier in the session, in tandem with silver's reversal. U.S. June gold futures settled up $5.30 at $1,509.10 an ounce, in a range from $1,502.20 to $1,1519.20.

VOLUME AT RECORD HIGH

U.S. May silver futures jumped as much as over 8 percent to a intraday high of of $49.82 an ounce, just about 50 cents off its all-time peak for futures at $50.35 hit on Jan. 18, 1980. May settled up $47.149 an ounce, up $1.09.

U.S. silver volume surged to a record high, topping 300,000 lots, more than doubled gold's turnover, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Despite record futures volume, silver's initial rally was not backed by active trade prior to its sell-off, with markets in Britain, Canada and Australia shut due to the Easter Monday holiday.

Analysts said silver's rally was backed by new source of demand from solar panel manufacturers in addition to traditional strongholds including electronics and photography amid a recovering economy. However, extreme price fluctuations could hurt demand.

"We are constantly researching and developing production methods to minimize key resource inputs, including silver, to drive down the costs of production," said Stuart Wenham, chief technology officer of Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd , the world's top solar panel maker.

Wenham said that the recent rise of silver prices with increasing volatility highlights the importance of the company's R&D initiatives.

OPTION VOLATILITY SPIKES

COMEX option floor trader Dominic Cognata said that volatility in silver options "went through the moon" ahead of Tuesday's May option expiration and Wednesday's conclusion of the Fed's two-day policy-setting meeting.

Active option trade in iShares Silver Trust , the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, also suggests some traders maybe betting on a sharp reversal after a huge rally in silver prices.

A key technical indicator, silver's 14-day relative strength index, is warning of a further correction in the silver market after the precious metal got within $1 of its all-time high on Monday and traded at levels not seen in more than 30 years. [ID:nN25211877]

On gold, the CBOE gold volatility index <.GVZ>, a gauge of bullion investor anxiety, surged to about 17 percent, its biggest one-day gain since November last year.

James Dailey, portfolio manager of the TEAM Asset Strategy Fund said that silver's technical charts are showing signs of exhaustion, with strong volume recorded at its sharply higher open and the subsequent reversal.

In platinum group metals, platinum was up 0.6 percent at $1,821 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.7 percent at $760.47 an ounce. Prices at 3:39 p.m. EDT (1939 GMT)

LAST/ NET PCT YTD

CLOSE CHG CHG CHG US gold 1509.10 5.30 0.4% 6.2% US silver 47.149 1.090 0.0% 52.4% US platinum 1828.10 7.40 0.4% 2.8% US palladium 760.80 -8.25 -1.1% -5.3% Gold 1509.60 6.05 0.4% 6.4% Silver 47.34 0.67 1.4% 53.4% Platinum 1821.00 10.20 0.6% 3.0% Palladium 760.47 -5.01 -0.7% -4.9% Gold Fix 1504.00 -3.00 -0.2% 6.6% Silver Fix 46.26 147.00 3.3% 51.0% Platinum Fix 1812.00 2.00 0.1% 4.7% Palladium Fix 765.00 6.00 0.8% -3.3% (Additional reporting by David Sheppard and Angela Moon in New York, Doris Frankel in Chicago, Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.