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PRECIOUS-Silver, gold fall as economic woes crunch early gains

Published 05/12/2011, 03:42 AM
Updated 05/12/2011, 03:44 AM
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* Gold, silver return to losses after early bounce

* Spot gold to fall to $1,456 -technicals [ID:nL3E7GC067]

* Coming up: U.S. retail sales, April; 1230 GMT (Adds details, comments; updates prices)

By Rujun Shen

SINGAPORE, May 12 (Reuters) - Spot silver dropped 2.6 percent and gold edged lower on Thursday as worries about economic growth and the end of easy monetary policy crushed early gains, extending losses from the previous session.

A broad-based sell-off in commodities that has seen major losses last Thursday and again on Wednesday has pulled silver down nearly a third from a record high hit just two weeks ago, with gold off 5.4 percent from the record hit at the start of the month.

Data on Wednesday showed Chinese output growth slowing and inflation still high, painting a mixed picture that could mean slowing purchases from the world's top driver of commodities demand growth, especially if it has to continue monetary tightening to clamp down on consumer prices. [ID:nL3E7GB0H2]

"With China tightening and the ECB looking to withdraw monetary stimulus the chances were commods were going to struggle," said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup.

"Given that most metals, including silver, were above fair value, the passing of easy money makes it difficult to stay above fair value."

Spot silver fell 2.6 percent to $34.16 an ounce by 0721 GMT, after a fall of nearly 9 percent the previous day. Gold dipped 0.4 percent to $1,494.46, adding to the 1 percent loss on Wednesday.

Even with the recent losses silver remained the best performer of the precious metals complex, up 10.3 percent so far this year, compared to gold's 5.3 percent gain and falls for platinum and palladium.

"People are still worried about commodities -- we have seen some short covering, some buying on dips today, but the buying is not substantial," said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus in Hong Kong.

The China data, which show inflation still high in April but off its peak of the previous month in the world's second-largest economy, undermines gold's appeal as a hedge against higher prices.

"If inflation had been much higher, it would have meant more buying in gold and silver," said a Tokyo-based trader. "Since the economy is slowing and inflation seems under control, it is relatively bearish for precious metals."

Easy monetary policy has also been seen as a major driver of commodities prices as investors hunt for yield, but this influence is fading with the European Central Bank raising rates at its last meeting, China already well through its tightening cycle and a second round of quantitative easing in the United States set to end in June.

The gold-silver ratio, used to measure how many ounces of silver is needed to buy an ounce of gold, jumped nearly 9 percent on Wednesday to 42.78, its highest level since late February.

The dollar index , a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of currencies, held steady near a three-week high, as fears over Greece's debt crisis weighed on the euro. Precious metals prices 0721 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume Spot Gold 1494.46 -5.29 -0.35 5.28 Spot Silver 34.16 -0.90 -2.57 10.69 Spot Platinum 1763.99 -6.11 -0.35 -0.20 Spot Palladium 707.40 -6.43 -0.90 -11.52 TOCOM Gold 3910.00 -61.00 -1.54 4.85 61639 TOCOM Platinum 4651.00 -76.00 -1.61 -0.96 9646 TOCOM Silver 89.80 -12.50 -12.22 10.86 5012 TOCOM Palladium 1860.00 -57.00 -2.97 -11.30 375 COMEX GOLD JUN1 1494.60 -6.80 -0.45 5.15 22973 COMEX SILVER JUL1 34.16 -1.36 -3.82 10.41 16561 Euro/Dollar 1.4211 Dollar/Yen 81.04 TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce. COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months (Additional reporting by Michael Urquhart; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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