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PRECIOUS-Gold rises above $1,500/oz on Greece hopes

Published 06/28/2011, 03:46 PM
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* Hopes Greek crisis may be contained lift commodities

* 1 in 6 European banks to fail an EU-wide stress test

* Greece's vote on austerity plan Wednesday, Thursday

* Coming up: U.S. May pending home sales Wednesday (Recasts, updates prices, market activity, adds graphic link)

By Frank Tang

NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Tuesday, rising past $1,500 an ounce and snapping three sessions of declines, as hopes that Greece would pass unpopular austerity measures boosted the euro and fueled investor risk appetite for commodities.

Gold has come under pressure from risk-averse selling and technical weakness. Worries of economic slowdown and fears that debt-laden Greece may default also dented gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. Even after Tuesday's gain, the metal remained down nearly 4 percent in the past four days.

"There are days on which gold benefits because the risk-on trade comes back into vogue and it doesn't matter what commodity you look at, they're all going up," said Natixis commodities strategist Nic Brown.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index <.CRB> was poised for its biggest one-day gain in six weeks, with crude oil jumping nearly 3 percent. Wall Street also rallied for a second day as hopes of a solution to the Greek debt problem spurred investor appetite for risky assets. [O/R] [.N]

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,499.40 an ounce by 3:09 p.m. EDT (1909 GMT).

U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled up $3.80 an ounce at $1,500.20, after trading between $1,495.50 and $1,507. Volume was less than 100,000 lots, about 55 percent below the 30-day average. Gold volume has been thin lately as investors have focused on equities markets.

The euro rose 0.6 percent versus the dollar, recovering from a decline in recent weeks on worries that Greece's debt crisis could destabilize the euro zone. If these concerns are allayed the euro could recover. This could help gold rise on dollar weakness even though the precious metal would lose some of its safe-haven bid as fears about Greece waned. [FRX/]

"If there is any slight marginal improvement in Europe, and if the European Central Bank is going to be starting to raise rates in September and December, you might have a currency story that could be quite positive for gold," said Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank.

On charts, gold could meet resistance at $1,520 an ounce near the convergence of its 55-day moving average and a two-month rising trend line, CitiFX analysts said.

"A weekly close through $1,462 if it happens, would suggest a danger of a further corrective move lower," according to the Fibonacci retracement model, CitiFX said in a note.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Two-month trendline, 55-day MA:

http://r.reuters.com/myj42s

TIMELINE - Key hurdles for Greece in coming weeks:

[ID:nLDE75K1E]

Gold/Brent crude correlation:

http://r.reuters.com/fyg42s

Euro zone debt struggle:

http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

ECB in graphics:

http://r.reuters.com/neg32s

Bank exposure latest breakdown:

http://r.reuters.com/max89r

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

EYES ON GREECE

Greece's parliament is set to vote on Wednesday and Thursday on an austerity program required for Athens to receive more aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Investors grew more hopeful that the Greece debt crisis could be contained as heavily exposed French banks agreed to roll over Greek debt. There was also talk that European Union officials are working on a contingency plan in case Greece's parliament rejects an austerity package. [ID:nL6E7HR2SK] [ID:nLDE75P0BM]

Also underpinning gold prices was news that up to one in six European banks is set to fail an EU-wide financial health check, according to euro zone sources close to the stress-testing. [ID:nLDE75R120]

But traders noted that physical buying of gold remained soft during the seasonally weak summer months and as the U.S. Federal Reserve's second round of market stimulus, the $600 billion bond-buying program comes to an end on June 30.

Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.7 percent at $33.76 an ounce, while platinum rose 1.2 percent to $1,691.25 an ounce and palladium was up 1.5 percent at $735.72. Prices at 3:09 p.m. EDT (1909 GMT)

LAST/ NET PCT YTD

CLOSE CHG CHG CHG US gold 1500.20 3.80 0.3% 5.5% US silver 33.638 0.053 0.2% 8.7% US platinum 1691.70 18.70 1.1% -4.9% US palladium 733.40 10.55 1.5% -8.7% Gold 1499.40 3.20 0.2% 5.6% Silver 33.76 0.22 0.7% 9.4% Platinum 1691.25 19.70 1.2% -4.3% Palladium 735.72 10.74 1.5% -8.0% Gold Fix 1499.00 -3.50 -0.2% 6.3% Silver Fix 33.96 -5.00 -0.1% 10.9% Platinum Fix 1692.00 1.00 0.1% -2.3% Palladium Fix 734.00 0.00 0.0% -7.2% (Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper and Jan Harvey in London; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and David Gregorio)

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