By Mark Weinraub
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department's closely watched monthly supply and demand forecast will not include Phase 1 trade details about China's purchase commitments from the recently inked deal, the agency's top economist said on Thursday.
USDA analysts have not been told buying targets for each farm product included in the trade deal, which called for China to boost its purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities by $40 billion over the next two years, USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson said in an interview.
"There are a lot of different ways to get the Phase 1 agreement" dollar figure, Johansson said. "We do not really know what path that is going to be at this point in the year."
Commodity traders and grain merchants have been waiting for signs of a pick-up in Chinese demand, particularly for soybean exports from the world's number one buyer of the oilseed. But export sales from the United States have remained sluggish since the deal was signed.
Chinese demand for U.S. exports typically slows this time of year as the South American harvest begins.
The deal, which Beijing and Washington inked on Jan. 15, is being factored into USDA's forecast but the impact will be limited due to the lack of deal specifics, Johansson said.
USDA also will incorporate recent export activity, crop sizes in the U.S. and overseas, and other market information into its outlook, Johansson said. The government also will have to track the impact of coronavirus and African swine fever in the monthly report.
The first report since the trade deal will be released at Feb. 11 at 12 p.m. EST (1700 GMT).
The USDA released a white paper on the subject on Thursday. (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/reports/USDATradeForecastsAndUSChinaAgreement.pdf)
Soybean futures have fallen 6.5% since the deal was signed.