* Canada's S&P/TSX index seen at 12,225 at end-2010
* Easing double-dip worries expected to support index
By Jennifer Kwan
TORONTO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index is seen edging higher by year-end and will likely extend gains into the middle of 2011, boosted by steady domestic growth and easing concerns about the global economy, a Reuters poll found.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index was seen ending the year at 12,225, according to the median forecast of 20 analysts and fund managers, published on Thursday.
That consensus forecast is less than 1 percent higher than Wednesday's close of 12,144.84 and suggests a 4 percent gain on the full year -- nowhere near the 31 percent gain racked up during 2009.
The results were roughly the same as those seen in June, when the median forecast showed the TSX at 12,250 at end-year.
"The market's been overly defensive. A lot of market participants are sitting on cash. A lot of market participants have been expecting a double-dip," said Francis Campeau, broker at MF Global Canada, in Montreal, noting concerns about falling back into recession have eased.
Many analysts expressed a vote of confidence in the underlying economic factors that prompted the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time early this month, up 25 basis points to 1 percent.
Contrary to most economists' expectations, the central bank did not signal a pause and sounded surprisingly hawkish even as it forecast a more gradual economic recovery than expected.
Second-quarter growth in Canada disappointed at a 2 percent annualized rate versus the bank's 3 percent projection.
The poll pointed to further modest gains to 12,500 by the middle of next year, thanks in part to home-grown economic stability.
The TSX index, like other major stock market indexes, has been swayed in recent months by broader concerns about the health of the U.S. economic recovery, as well as worries that China would tighten the reins on monetary policy.
Recent U.S. data have dimmed fears of a double-dip recession but the recovery there is still fragile owing largely to the weakness in the labour market.
Earlier this week, government data showed sales at U.S. retailers posted their largest gain in five months in August on strong receipts at gasoline stations and clothing outlets, further assuaging fears of a double-dip recession and sending North American markets higher.
But estimates for the TSX index heading into the middle of next year were in a wide range -- from 9,800 to 14,500 -- reflecting uncertainty about where the market is headed, in large part because of uncertainty over the global recovery.
"The next three to six months or so are critical," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities.
(Additional reporting by Claire Sibonney; additional polling by the Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)