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UPDATE 1-China cbank sees room for further lifting reserve ratio

Published 04/19/2011, 03:40 AM
Updated 04/19/2011, 03:44 AM
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* China c.bank: negative real interest rates cause distortions

* Says to make yuan more flexible to address imported inflation

* Says GDP may above 8 pct in 2011, hard to keep CPI at 4 pct (Add details, quotes)

BEIJING, April 19 (Reuters) - China has "considerable" scope to further increase its reserve requirement ratio for banks, Hu Xiaolian, a deputy governor at China's central bank said in comments published on Tuesday.

"In both theory analysis and real situation estimates, there is considerable room to increase the deposit reserve ratio in the future," Hu said in a speech made on Friday, two days before the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased the ratio to an all-time high of 20.5 percent for big banks. [ID:nL3E7FH05Y]

"It should be noted that increases in the deposit reserve ratio are mainly aimed at soaking up liquidity generated by foreign exchange inflows, and the increases have no big impact on normal positions of financial institutions with an overall neutral effect," Hu added.

Her comments were in line with remarks of Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan who said there was no limit to how high the deposit reserve ratio could be raised. [ID:nL3E7FG019]

Hu added that four increases in benchmark interest rates had helped to lessen the real negative interest rates, but added that China must let interest rate "play a bigger role" in managing inflation.

"Long-term, continuous real negative interest rates will affect saving and spending behavior, encourage investments and undermine inflation management," she said.

China's inflation hit a 32-month-high of 5.4 percent in March, while China's one-year benchmark deposit rate is set at 3.25 percent.

IMPORTED INFLATION

Hu also said China has to make the yuan more flexible as a way to address imported inflation.

"Due to a recovery in demand worldwide, sufficient liquidity, geopolitical events and big natural disasters, commodity prices are expected to continue rising," Hu said.

Price increases abroad, coupled with rising costs at home, will put pressure on the central bank to keep full-year inflation at about 4 percent in 2011, Hu noted.

"From the current trend, the inflation situation needs high attention," Hu said. "The latest price rise is driven by complicated factors at home and abroad. There is no fundamental change in these factors so far, and we face big challenges to achieve the full-year 4 percent control target."

She said domestic drivers of economic growth are strong while the global economic recovery is well on track this year.

"If there is no big surprise, China can achieve 8 percent or even higher economic growth for the whole year," Hu said.

(Reporting by Zhou Xin, Langi Chiang and Koh Gui Qing; Editing by Ken Wills)

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