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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: May 14 - 18

Published 05/13/2012, 10:42 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas prices rose to the highest level since early March on Friday, continuing their recent run of strong gains amid indications major North American natural gas producers were cutting back on production in response to lower prices.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in June settled at USD2.498 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday. Earlier in the day, prices touched USD2.530, the highest since March 1.

On the week, prices surged 8.44%, the third consecutive weekly advance.

Sentiment on the heating fuel has improved in recent weeks, after hitting a string of fresh 10-year lows for the most part of April. Prices are up almost 25% since hitting a decade-low of USD1.902 on April 19.

Industry research group Baker Hughes said Friday that the number of active rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. fell by eight last week to 598, the lowest since April 2002, when there were 591 rigs operating.

It was the fifth drop in the past six weeks. The gas rig count is down by almost 36% since peaking at 936 in October.

If in coming weeks the count drops to 590 or lower, gas-directed drilling would be at its lowest since October 1999.

The steady decline in rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. has fuelled speculation that major North American natural gas producers were beginning to curb output in response to declining prices.  

The report follows government data released last week showing that gross natural gas production in February fell 0.6% in the lower 48 states to 72.32 billion cubic feet per day, the lowest level since October 2011. The decline was only the second in the last 12 months

Speculation that utility providers in the U.S. were switching from pricier coal to cheaper natural gas provided further support over recent sessions.

Natural gas prices surged in the final hour of trading on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected demand from the power-generating sector will rise nearly 21% this year.

Meanwhile, natural gas traders said that one of the factors supporting the market during the three-week rally was the lack of significant unwinding of long positions, most likely held by legendary natural gas trader John Arnold, who closed his Centaurus Energy master fund in early May.   

Many traders also said the market likely bottomed out after sinking to a 10-year spot chart low.

Despite the recent run of strong gains, market participants noted that prices remain vulnerable to a downside correction amid concerns over elevated U.S. storage levels.

The U.S. EIA said on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 30 billion cubic feet to 2.606 trillion cubic feet last week, up 44.2% from year ago levels and 44.5% higher than the five-year average.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 52 billion cubic feet to 79 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's build of 86 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 91 billion cubic feet.

If weekly stock builds through October match the five-year average, inventories would top out at 4.475 trillion cubic feet, 8.4% over peak capacity estimates of about 4.1 trillion cubic feet.    

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for June delivery traded at USD95.65 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, dropping 2.45% on the week, while heating oil for June delivery shed 0.4% over the week to settle at USD2.960 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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