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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: January 13 - 17

Published 01/12/2014, 10:48 AM
Natural gas futures end the week with a loss of 6%
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Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures rose for the first time in four days on Friday, as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations after prices fell to a one-month low.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in February climbed 1.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD4.053 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices fell to a session low of USD3.954 per million British thermal units earlier, the weakest level since December 5.

Natural gas futures were likely to find support at USD3.954 per million British thermal units, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD4.194, the high from January 9. On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 6.02%, the third consecutive weekly decline.

The February contract plunged 5% on Thursday to settle at USD4.005 per million British thermal units after weekly U.S. inventory data disappointed investors.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas supplies dropped by 157 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 3, broadly in line with estimates. Inventories fell by 191 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 131 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.817 trillion cubic feet as last week, approximately 16% below last year's unusually high level and nearly 10% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 222 billion cubic feet to 286 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 159 billion cubic feet.

The largest drop on record is a decrease of 285 billion in the seven days ended December 13, Energy Information Administration data show.

Meanwhile, updated weather forecasting models called for a warming trend across much of the U.S. in the next six-to-ten days.

Bearish speculators are betting that the mild weather will decrease demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

The CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ending January 7 showed that speculators have been aggressively shorting natural gas futures. Gross shorts totaled 91,341 contracts as of last week.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for February delivery settled at USD92.72 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 1.55% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for February delivery inched up 0.16% on the week to settle at USD2.949 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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