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METALS-Copper slips on inflation worries, focus shifts to Fed

Published 04/26/2011, 12:28 PM
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* Copper inventories at highest since mid-June last year

* Beijing plan to restrict new projects for some metals

* Aluminium approaching new highs since August 2008

(Updates with closing prices)

By Sue Thomas and Melanie Burton

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Tuesday, weighed by concerns that rising energy costs could hinder global growth prospects, while focus shifted to the next phase of U.S. monetary policy, which may be clarified on Wednesday.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,545, from $9,700 when the market closed on Thursday before the long weekend started on Friday.

The metal used in power and construction pared losses, however, from a session trough below $9,400 a tonne. It has fallen around 6 percent from a record high $10,190 hit in February.

"It's clear that the inflation that is coming alongside higher energy prices is not good for base metals. It's expected to accompany further tightening measures, particularly in the developing world, which will be damaging for demand," analyst Nic Brown of Natixis said.

Brent crude oil futures turned lower on Tuesday in seesaw trading, following an earlier move by U.S. crude, as investors took a cautious tack at the start of a Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting.

Investors were focused on the U.S. central bank's first scheduled briefing with reporters in its 97-year history, which will cap the end of the meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Investors bet the Fed will keep its easy monetary policy in place.

"It will be a test for Bernanke and ... it will be very interesting to see exactly what message we get," added Brown.

"However, whether that is genuinely what the market is worrying about, or whether it's more what is going on in energy markets, or a question of what kind of monetary tightening is going to take place in developing countries is not so obvious."

Meanwhile, stocks of copper continued their counter-cyclical uptrend this quarter, pointing to still limp demand, echoed by trade data from China, the world's top consumer of base metals.

Copper inventories grew by almost 4,000 tonnes to more than 460,000 tonnes, the latest data showed, and were at their highest levels since mid-June last year.

Data showed China's refined copper imports fell 43 percent in March from the same month last year due to high stocks and strong international prices, although the figure was a rebound from the holiday-shortened month of February.

"Perhaps the markets are still digesting what were definitely not bullish figures for the Chinese trade data," said analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas.

A weaker dollar also supported the complex because it makes commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

VOLATILE

Base metals trading is expected to remain volatile in another week shortened by holidays, and the focus is likely to shift to data over coming days showing how the U.S. and British economies fared in the first quarter.

"With U.S. GDP, U.S. durable goods orders and Eurozone industrial new orders in focus, the (base metals) sector has plenty of information to digest," Credit Suisse said in a note.

"We think the data could point to a modest slowdown in economic activity but generally confirm that the recovery remains on track. That could set a rather positive tone for trading."

The preliminary snapshot of U.S. GDP growth, which a Reuters survey puts at 2 percent, will be released on April 28.

Stocks levels would increasingly become an important factor to watch, Credit Suisse said. "The positive economic backdrop will have to be confirmed by declining inventories for the rally to remain sustainable."

Zinc ended at $2,260 from Thursday's $2,360 close. Technical selling is likely to have been set off once it breached the 200-day moving average of $2,290, a key signal watched by funds.

Aluminium was $2,747 from $2,745 near last week's 2.5 year summit at $2,757 a tonne.

"Ali is ... holding up fairly well on account of resiliency in energy as the two commodities are perceived to be linked," said MF Global in a research note. "Two days of closes above $2,750 could lead to another potential leg higher."

Tin ended at $32,700.

China on Tuesday raised the bar for polluters in a plan that included restricting new projects for mining tin, tungsten, molybdenum, antimony and rare earths.

Battery material lead finished at $2,558 from $2,601 and nickel was last seen at $26,650 from $26,900.

Metal Prices at 1611 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2009 Ytd Percent

move COMEX Cu 433.10 2.80 +0.65 334.65 29.42 LME Alum 2746.00 1.00 +0.04 2230.00 23.14 LME Cu 9544.00 -156.00 -1.61 7375.00 29.41 LME Lead 2558.00 -43.00 -1.65 2432.00 5.18 LME Nickel 26650.00 -250.00 -0.93 18525.00 43.86 LME Tin 32720.00 70.00 +0.21 16950.00 93.04 LME Zinc 2260.50 -99.50 -4.22 2560.00 -11.70 SHFE Alu 16835.00 25.00 +0.15 17160.00 -1.89 SHFE Cu* 69900.00 -840.00 -1.19 59900.00 16.69 SHFE Zin 17340.00 -30.00 -0.17 21195.00 -18.19 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Editing by William Hardy and Jane Baird)

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