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METALS-Copper rallies on back of dollar, demand outlook

Published 04/06/2011, 03:31 PM
Updated 04/06/2011, 03:36 PM
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* Copper up on China demand revival; eyes import data

* Aluminium rises to highest since Sept 2008

* Coming up: ECB rate hike decision on Thursday (Recasts, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds graphic and analyst comments)

By Chris Kelly and Sue Thomas

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Copper ended sharply higher on Wednesday, posting its biggest one-day gain in two weeks as currency-related buying and perceptions of healthier Chinese purchases fed the rally.

Copper's strength fed through to the broader base metals complex, with nickel rallying as much as 4.3 percent, lead extending a five-day rally, and aluminium hitting its priciest level since September 2008.

The more-optimistic tone followed a strong performance in Chinese equities, one day after the country raised interest rates for a fourth time since October. This strength indicated to investors that the tightening measures will not thwart demand from China, analysts said.

"The evidence to this point is that the Chinese rate hikes have kind of controlled things and slowed things down a bit, but they haven't had a material impact on demand for commodities in general," said Bill O'Neill, partner of LOGIC Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rallied 2.3 percent or $215 higher, to close at $9,605 per tonne, its biggest daily percentage gain since March 23.

COMEX May copper shot up 10.55 cents to settle at $4.37 per lb, as the momentum pushed the contract up near its trendline resistance.

"If we have some extension tomorrow and Friday to the upside, we're probably going to take out that trendline and work toward $4.45 (per lb)," said Scott Meyers, senior trading analyst with Pioneer Futures in New York.

"If we take out $4.45 on a settlement, I think there is room for $4.55 and then the contract highs ... it's really setting up for that kind of move right now."

Steve Platt, futures analyst with Archer Financial Services in Chicago, saw support from the currency markets, where the euro climbed against the dollar to its highest in more than a year ahead of an expected rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Copper prices now stand within 6 percent of their mid-February records at $10,190 per tonne in London and $4.6575 per lb in New York, as investors bet that China's economy, which expanded by 10 percent in 2010, will need greater amounts of raw materials to satisfy that rate of growth.

"I still think the major mistake the bears are making is the same mistake they were making when copper was $2.50 (per lb), that is demand is much greater than people anticipate," LOGIC Advisors' O'Neill said, adding that bullish comments from some of the world's leading producers at the CESCO/CRU mining conference in Chile this week reinforced this view.

"The fundamental demand is still there (China). The credit situation in China, when that changes, has a short-term effect, but the underlying growth story in demand is still there," Xstrata Copper Chief Executive Charlie Sartain said on the sidelines of the CRU conference.

"Internationally we see a recovery in other markets not as significant as China," he added. "In markets such as the U.S., we see a recovery there."

For more stories from the CESCO/CRU mining conference, click:

IMPORT REBOUND?

Furthermore, expectations are building for a rebound in China's copper, iron ore and coal imports in March, with shipments of refined copper expected to rise from February's 27-month low.

"The general expectation is that those numbers will be reasonably positive because we know that some imports were delayed from February to March due to the Chinese New Year holiday," said David Wilson, director of metals research at Societe Generale.

China's General Administration of Customs will publish preliminary import data for March on April 11.

Aluminium rose to $2,685 a tonne, its highest since September 2008, before ending up $29 at $2,670.

Open interest on aluminium LME contracts is near its highest since the middle of January.

Latest data showed inventories of the metal in LME warehouses were down 4,175 tonnes at 4,589,000, but remained consistently high and within reach of a record high 4,640,750 tonnes hit in January last year. (Additional reporting by Rebekah Curtis and Silvia Antonioli in London; editing by Dale Hudson)

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