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METALS-Copper hits one-week high, eyes on tight supply

Published 04/21/2011, 12:36 PM
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* Anglo American copper production falls 14 percent in Q1

* Aluminium hits highest since August 2008

* London Metal Exchange shut Friday, Monday

(Updates with closing prices)

By Melanie Burton and Silvia Antonioli

LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - Copper rallied to its highest in more than a week on Thursday as supply concerns and a weak U.S. dollar lifted prices, while investors shrugged off data showing a large drop in Chinese imports of the metal last month.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange finished at $9,700 a tonne versus $9,577 at the close on Wednesday.

The red metal, used in power and construction, earlier hit $9,707.75 a tonne, its highest since April 12, after having recovered from one-month lows near $9,200 at the start of the week.

Anglo American said floods and heavy rains hampered output in the first quarter, including a 14 percent fall in copper output, reinforcing worries about tight supply, although the London-listed miner stuck to its production targets.

"The underlying supply tensions in copper are still there, which is the main theme (supporting prices)," said analyst Dan Smith of Standard Chartered.

"Chinese data today showed quite a lot of weakness in terms of imports, but despite that copper prices have been quite strong," he said.

"That reflects the weakness of the dollar and rising equities on the back of expectations that rates won't rise in the U.S. soon."

China's refined copper imports dropped 43 percent in March from the same month last year due to high stocks and strong international prices, although the figure was a rebound from the holiday-shortened month of February.

The U.S. dollar tumbled for a third straight day on Thursday to near an all-time low against a broad measure of currencies. A weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper in other currencies.

U.S. stocks, which had been buoyant on improved earnings results, pared some gains after data showed the pace of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell far more than expected in April.

Next week, one key risk for the metals markets could be U.S. advance first-quarter gross domestic product data on Wednesday, which will be closely watched for the timbre of economic health.

"Our U.S. macro guys think that number will surprise on the downside. It could take the market by surprise in terms of being less than people expect," said Standard Chartered's Smith.

COPPER CONSOLIDATION

Sovereign debt issues in Europe and worries over rising inventories in Asia are weighing on copper's short-term outlook, said RBS analyst Daniel Major.

"We are going to see consolidation between $9,000-10,000 in the near term and higher levels in 18-24 months," he said.

Inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses rose by 2,575 tonnes to 456,275 tonnes, their highest since last June, the latest data showed.

Aluminium powered to its highest level since August 2008 as rising costs of power boosted expectations for the energy-intensive metal's input costs.

"We think the sector is preparing for a more significant move higher," said Credit Suisse Private Banking in a note as it raised its aluminium forecasts.

It now sees aluminium at $2,850 on a three-month horizon, rising to $2,950 in 21 months, from prior forecasts of $2,600 and $2,650.

Aluminium ended at $2,745 from $2,730 at the close on Wednesday.

Tin was untraded but bid at $32,700/$32,750, from $32,650 at the close on Wednesday while zinc was at $2,360 and flat from the day before.

Lead, which is used to make batteries, slipped back to $2,601 from $2,610 and stainless steel material nickel, was at $26,900 from $26,400.

Metal Prices at 1618 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2009 Ytd Percent

move COMEX Cu 439.85 5.90 +1.36 334.65 31.44 LME Alum 2744.00 14.00 +0.51 2230.00 23.05 LME Cu 9700.00 123.00 +1.28 7375.00 31.53 LME Lead 2601.00 -9.00 -0.34 2432.00 6.95 LME Nickel 26900.00 500.00 +1.89 18525.00 45.21 LME Tin 32700.00 50.00 +0.15 16950.00 92.92 LME Zinc 2359.50 -0.50 -0.02 2560.00 -7.83 SHFE Alu 16835.00 -20.00 -0.12 17160.00 -1.89 SHFE Cu* 71440.00 530.00 +0.75 59900.00 19.27 SHFE Zin 17920.00 -65.00 -0.36 21195.00 -15.45 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

(Additional reporting by Pratima Desai; editing by Jane Baird)

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