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METALS-Copper ends up as investors seek inflation hedge

Published 04/08/2011, 03:17 PM
Updated 04/08/2011, 03:20 PM
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* Base metals jump to new highs as inflation fears mount

* U.S. dollar depreciation underpins rally in complex

* Coming up: Chinese metal import data on Monday (Recasts, adds New York dateline/byline, updates prices, adds analyst comments)

By Chris Kelly and Silvia Antonioli

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Copper ended up over 2 percent on Friday, posting its biggest weekly advance since early December, as the dollar weakened and investor demand for the metal increased with inflation fears mounting.

The gains ran far and wide in the base metals complex, with another record tin price, a three-year peak in the price of lead and aluminum touching its loftiest level since August 2008.

Interest rate hikes by China and the European Central Bank this week failed to contain the bullish momentum, as investors eyeing greater inflationary threats in emerging and developed economies alike continued to flock to hard assets like copper, precious metals and crude oil as hedges.

"It's an across-the-board surge in all the commodities. Gold, oil ... they're all up. People are dumping the dollar and buying commodities," said MF Global senior commodity analyst Edward Meir.

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rallied $205 to close at $9,875 per tonne, near a session peak of $9,896 -- its highest in more than a month.

COMEX May copper surged 8.50 cents, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $4.5015 per lb.

For the week, prices were up about 5.7 percent -- their largest weekly gain since the first week of December 2010.

The recent bout of price strength placed both London and New York copper contracts a little more than 3 percent away from their mid-February records at $10,190 per tonne and $4.6575 per lb, respectively.

Even a sustained softness from Chinese consumers at the start of the year and uncertainties surrounding the true amount of off-exchange, bonded warehouse stocks in China -- estimated at more than 600,000 tonnes -- have failed to alter longer-term demand perceptions and stem the amount of money flowing into the complex this week as a hedge against inflation.

"You have speculative money investing in copper in a protection against inflation, and that seems to be testing resistance at $10,000 (per tonne) and negating the problems associated with off-exchange, bonded material in China," said Justin Lennon, analyst with Mitsui Bussan Commodities (U.S.A.) Inc.

Traders were also seeking protection Friday against a depreciation in the U.S. dollar, which fell to a 15-month low against the euro as the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown loomed.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Chinese import data on Monday, which should show the metal-consuming giant's appetite for copper, iron ore and coal imports in March rebounded from multimonth lows posted in February, a holiday-shortened month.

STOCKS

Reinforcing the near-term sluggishness in demand, stocks of copper saw another 1,800 tonnes flow into LME warehouses on Thursday, bringing total levels to 444,175 tonnes, their highest since July 2010.

But a big 4.8 percent withdrawal in copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange pointed to healthier demand prospects into the seasonally better second quarter.

"We have seen a decent outflow of stocks in Shanghai. It would suggest that post Chinese New Year buyers are coming back into the market," Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS, said.

Furthermore, copper scrap arrivals into China are likely to rise in late April and May after importers placed more spot orders in the past month as domestic stocks fell, supplier and buyer sources told Reuters.

In other metals, aluminum peaked at $2,715 per tonne, its highest since August 2008, before ending up $41 at $2,713.

Tin extended gains after the close to a fresh record at $33,100 per tonne, It closed the kerb up $500 at $33,050. Lead hit a three-year high of $2,870, and closed up $60 at $2,850. Metal Prices at 1843 GMT COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct

move COMEX Cu 450.70 9.05 +2.05 444.70 1.35 LME Alum 2712.00 40.00 +1.50 2470.00 9.80 LME Cu 9874.00 204.00 +2.11 9600.00 2.85 LME Lead 2845.00 55.00 +1.97 2550.00 11.57 LME Nickel 27600.00 800.00 +2.99 24750.00 11.52 LME Tin 33050.00 500.00 +1.54 26900.00 22.86 LME Zinc 2534.00 81.00 +3.30 2454.00 3.26 SHFE Alu 16875.00 40.00 +0.24 16840.00 0.21 SHFE Cu* 73160.00 1470.00 +2.05 71850.00 1.82 SHFE Zin 18795.00 250.00 +1.35 19475.00 -3.49 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Sue Thomas in London; editing by Alison Birrane and Jim Marshall)

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