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METALS-Copper eases, doubts about China demand dominate

Published 03/30/2011, 12:32 PM
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* Market nervously watching China

* Copper stocks in China, LME warehouses in the spotlight

(Updates prices)

By Pratima Desai and Rebekah Curtis

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Wednesday to its lowest in nearly two weeks, as investors worried about a lack of demand from top global metals buyer China.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,381 a tonne from $9,590 a tonne at Tuesday's close, on track for a 5-percent fall in March, its first monthly decline since June 2010.

It earlier hit its lowest since March 17, at $9,341 a tonne, some 8 percent below a record high of $10,190 hit on Feb. 15.

"All the bets were put on China," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank. "Sentiment in China is not as rosy and not as upbeat as sentiment in Europe or the U.S.," he added.

China has been absent from the copper market for some months now, and analysts and traders are beginning to question whether it will come back before prices fall further.

Analysts also pointed to an abundance of copper stocks in China. "We are cautious on copper's outlook ... It could be just be monetary tightening impacting on the copper market," said Nic Brown, an analyst at Natixis. "It could be a reflection of copper stockpiles built up in 2009 and now being run down."

China's State Reserves Bureau and consumers are expected by analysts to have built up large stocks of copper in 2009, when prices ranged between $3,000 and $7,500 a tonne.

"The market is nervous, watching and waiting, not sure China is in the market for copper this year," a trader said.

He added: "The crisis in Japan and the Middle East is keeping investors away. They are waiting to see the impact on growth overall from what's going on in these places."

The market pared some losses after data showed U.S. private employers added 201,000 jobs in March, largely in line with expectations, which earlier prompted the dollar to trim gains versus the euro.

TRADITIONALLY STRONG QUARTER

Traders and analysts are waiting to see what will happen in the second quarter, traditionally the strongest in terms of demand, when China normally buys ahead of a pick-up in construction activity in the third quarter.

"Anecdotally, something in the region of 600,000 tonnes of refined copper currently (sits) in bonded warehouses in Shanghai, with perhaps another 100,000 tonnes in the southern ports," Standard Bank said in a note.

Also in the spotlight are stocks of copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses, which are near 440,000 tonnes, up more than 25 percent since early December and at their highest since July last year.

Zinc closed at $2,338 a tonne from $2,375 and lead, untraded at the close, was last bid at $2,655 a tonne from $2,685.

Tin closed at $31,250 a tonne from Tuesday's last bid at $31,550 and stainless steel ingredient nickel was at $26,030 a tonne from $26,600.

Aluminium hit a high of $2,654 a tonne from $2,648 on Tuesday when it saw $2,656 a tonne, its highest since September 2008. The metal used in transport, packaging and construction closed at $2,629 a tonne.

"Aluminium has been supported by rising input costs," Deutsche Bank said in a note. "The loss of nuclear power capacity globally ... is likely to keep global energy prices at elevated levels. We see cost-push as continuing to support aluminium prices in the medium term." Metal Prices at 1620 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2010 Ytd Percent

move COMEX Cu 428.05 -6.60 -1.52 444.70 -3.74 LME Alum 2629.00 -19.00 -0.72 2470.00 6.44 LME Cu 9380.00 -210.00 -2.19 9600.00 -2.29 LME Lead 2655.00 -30.00 -1.12 2550.00 4.12 LME Nickel 26025.00 -575.00 -2.16 24750.00 5.15 LME Tin 31225.00 -525.00 -1.65 26900.00 16.08 LME Zinc 2335.00 -40.00 -1.68 2454.00 -4.85 SHFE Alu 16835.00 5.00 +0.03 16840.00 -0.03 SHFE Cu* 71300.00 470.00 +0.66 71850.00 -0.77 SHFE Zin 18375.00 95.00 +0.52 19475.00 -5.65 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Editing by James Jukwey)

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