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FOREX-Euro drops amid Fitch cut of Greece rating

Published 12/08/2009, 12:13 PM
Updated 12/08/2009, 12:15 PM

* Euro falls vs dlr after Fitch cuts Greece rating

* German data also weighs; Dubai woes dent risk appetite

* Dollar falls vs yen on dovish Bernanke

* Bank of Canada leaves benchmark rate unchanged

(Recasts, adds details updates prices)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The euro dropped for the third straight day against the dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns about Greece's fiscal health after Fitch downgraded the country's credit rating.

Fitch Ratings cut Greece's debt rating to BBB+ from A- with a negative outlook. It was the first time in 10 years a major ratings agency put Greece below an A grade and Fitch cited fiscal deterioration in one of the euro zone's most indebted member states.

The cut followed a Standard & Poor's report that Greek banks faced the highest risks in western Europe.

An unexpected 1.8 percent month-on-month decline in German industrial output also weighed on the euro, while concerns about Dubai's debt woes pushed investors to seek the safety of the U.S. currency.

The "euro has been pressured by Fitch's downgrade of Greece and by S&P's recent decision to put both Greece and Portugal on negative watch (with a downgrade for Greece having broader implications for its EU compliance)," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto in a note to clients.

"We think sovereign rating issues will prove an important driver of foreign exchange in 2010, with currencies whose countries face potential downgrades underperforming," she said.

Midway through the New York trading day, the euro was down 0.6 percent at $1.4736, while the dollar index, a non-trade calculation of the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.4 percent to 76.070.

The euro touched its lowest since November 4 at the session low of $1.4724.

Worries about Dubai deepened as rating agency Moody's downgraded six Dubai-linked issuers after concluding that no "meaningful" government support would be provided for top firms like DP World or Emaar Properties.

The dollar stayed weak against the yen, falling 1.2 percent to 88.43 yen, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cooled speculation on Monday of an early rise in U.S. interest rates. The session low was 88.18 yen.

The euro was down 1.7 percent against the yen at 130.36 yen after earlier touching a session low of 130.08. It was the worst way day drop in percentage terms since Oct 30 at current prices and the lowest since December 1.

Bernanke said the U.S. economy still faced headwinds and unemployment could stay high for some time, playing down the impact of last Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report.

The U.S. data, which showed fewer jobs were lost in November than forecast, raised expectations the Fed may start to normalize ultra-easy monetary policy earlier than expected and triggered renewed buying of the dollar, which has now faded.

"Bernanke's speech was dovish, and he suggested there would not be an immediate rate rise," said Marcus Hettinger, global currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Zurich.

Analysts said the yen was the main gainer because Friday's jobs data had sparked talk the yen would return to being the funding currency of choice.

"The yen was the biggest loser after the payrolls data and it is the biggest winner today," Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.

The dollar has taken a beating for much of the year on the view U.S interest rates will stay low while those elsewhere rise. This would increase the yield advantage of other currencies against the dollar.

Earlier, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the euro zone faced a bumpy road to recovery.

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate on Tuesday at 0.25 percent, as expected, and maintained its outlook on the economic recovery despite unexpectedly weak third-quarter growth. The dollar was down up 0.8 percent against the Canadian dollar to C$1.0603. (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer in London) (Reporting by Nick Olivari, Editing by Andrew Hay)

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