Market Wire Update: December’s Sideways Trading

TheLFB-Forex.com A Forex Trader Portal

Market Wire Update:

December’s Sideways Trading

Forex Trader Note: We have just come off a very strong run of late November signals that tagged 1400 pips to the Options, 1000 pips in Trade Plan results, and 300 pips to the Spot signals. However, as we entered December things literally ran sideways, with most pairs being trapped in a very tight trading range up until the Non-farm Payroll explosion. Most pairs have regained some of the ground that the dollar stole on Friday, and now we are back in the ranges that had things locked down so well, that were at least readable.

Euro since 25^th Sep 09 has been in a 300 pip range either side of the current price. Since December the pair has generated four 4 Hour candles that contain the month’s movement.
Cable since 14^th Oct 09 has been in a 400 pip range either side of the current price. Since December the pair has generated four 4 Hour candles that contain the month’s movement.
Aussie since Oct 09 has just not moved anywhere that has been sustainable. Since December the pair has generated two 4 Hour candles that contain the month’s movement.
Cad since 8^th Oct 09 has been in a 400 pip range either side of the current price. Since December the pair has literally gone nowhere.
Swissy since 17^th Sep 09 has been in a 300 pip range either side of the current price. Since December the pair has generated two 4 Hour candles that contain the month’s movement.
Yen since 3rd Sep 09 has been in a 300 pip range either side of the current price. Since December the pair has generated three 4 Hour candles that contain the month’s movement.

S&P has been stuck since the beginning of November, Oil has been stuck since July, Gold has been going up since the beginning of November. In all, strange time, but two months that pips were made, so hang tight, one more session may set us up to trade the current swing points getting formed. The pre-NFP anxiety and post-NFP explosion have done nothing to create any form of stability. That is fine, patience is a virtue, and we will get paid handsomely for planning our work rather than forcing plays.

The Macro View:
The trends and momentum reads are mixed on the global market drivers (equity futures, crude oil, and gold), and have suffered further instability from the late session drop lower in Wall Street trade. The S&P was moving higher as 14:30 EST rolled around, but no sooner had the NYMEX (oil) markets closed, than a swath of sell orders hit that took almost 1% off trade values in very short time. Holding above 1095 will be important for S&P bulls, if not, the dollar gets stronger overnight. A hedge against a falling overnight investment portfolio could be a EUR/USD Jan 1.4650 put.

Red Flag Economics: 
03:15 EST Aud RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
--:-- EST Gbp Halifax HPI Exp 0.8%, Prev 1.2%
04:30 EST Gbp Manufacturing Prod Exp 0.5%, Prev 1.7%
08:15 EST Cad Housing Starts Exp 158K, Prev 157K
09:00 EST Cad BOC Rate Statement
09:00 EST Cad Overnight Rate Exp 0.25%, Prev 0.25%

Dollar Index: The dollar index went into Neutral mode on 26th Oct and has held that trend since. The near-term path of least resistance is consolidation around new lows, with long-bounces on weak equity trading days. A weekly close above 76.00 (that signals buyers are dominating), is bullish and signals a momentum reversal. Swing Point: 75.85

S&P Futures: The S&P futures market confirmed a Long momentum read on Nov 11th and have built a near-term support base around 1085. The 1115 area will be a major resistance point to battle this week. The moves to test and hold support are impressive, and now backed with Japanese and German markets that are also looking bullish. Swing Point: 1104

Crude Oil: There is still a very flat momentum read to crude oil trade that has been in place since 6th Nov. The 76.50 area continues to be a main price point, after sellers were held at bay recently around 72.50. The 80.50 area is the topside number to breach. There is a lack of speculative interest in oil trade right now. Swing Point: 74.50

Gold Bullion: Gold signaled long on 3rd Nov and has easily held that mode. 1135 is near-term support, backing any further long tests of 1200. Now looking for signals that support is in to buy a Jan Call option, or that 1135 fails to hold, and to buy a Jan Put option. Swing Point: 1152