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EXCLUSIVE-UPDATE 2-China govt killed plan for big corn imports

Published 01/13/2011, 09:18 AM

* China considered millions of tonnes of corn imports

* Govt wanted to cool domestic food price inflation

* Govt likely killed plan due to high prices, enough supply

* Follows Argentine claim of plan for 5MT imports in 2011

(Adds comments, background)

By Tom Miles, Tracy Zheng and Niu Shuping

BEIJING, Jan 13 (Reuters) - China decided against a plan to arrange millions of tonnes of corn imports, two industry sources with knowledge of the proposal said on Thursday, but many analysts still expect China will need to import this year.

Both sources cited China's food-related inflation as the reason for the initial plan and high foreign corn prices as the reason for the government to kill the proposal.

Corn prices rose last year because of strong demand and a weak 2009 harvest. The government is widely thought to be relatively low on stocks, which some analysts put at below 10 million tonnes, and is fearful of buying up the latest harvest lest it trigger fresh price rises.

One of the sources said the government felt China's short-term corn supply was not a problem.

"Previously, there was such a proposal. But not any more," said one of the sources. "The timing was not appropriate and (U.S.) prices were high. There's a big price difference with Chinese corn and Chinese prices do not seem to have risen much since the government acted to cool them."

Rumours of such a bulk purchase have preoccupied the corn market in recent months as China is widely expected to need to import again this year, although U.S. prices are currently too high to make imports into China commercially viable.

"I think China doesn't have a choice, when they need to restock, they will restock," said Adam Davis, a senior commodity analyst at Merricks Capital, a Melbourne-based funds manager that invests in agriculture.

"We have seen series of strong imports throughout Q3 and Q4 last year followed by subdued buying in the last month or so, and in this quarter we expect to see China back in the market."

U.S. prices hit a 30-month high on Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed its estimate of U.S. corn stocks, making U.S. corn imports even less attractive in China.

"If they expect prices to be higher tomorrow, they will buy today," said Davis. "We have often seen China as the catalyst for higher prices. Indeed the supply situation is tight and they should be buying at these prices."

Argentina's agriculture minister said in November, following a visit by his Chinese counterpart, that China planned to import 5 million tonnes of corn in 2011. But China's agriculture ministry denied it had discussed such a plan.

However, the ministry is not in charge of China's corn imports, which are overseen by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). NDRC officials were not immediately available to comment on Thursday.

Chinese President Hu Jintao will this month visit Chicago, where corn and other agricultural futures are traded, but a big corn purchase is not expected, two Chinese industry sources said.

"The Chicago market could go crazy just because the COFCO people are visiting, let alone the Chinese president," said a China-based trader at an international grain trading house.

"We don't think there will be corn purchases during Hu's visit. As far as we know none of suppliers have been contacted. Any large volume of purchases from the United States seem unrealistic now. Suppliers may not dare to risk being short on the Chicago market given the tight physical supplies."

IMPORTS A LAST RESORT

China imported about 1.5 million tonnes of U.S. corn in 2010, the first major purchase in 15 years, after the poor 2009 harvest failed to satisfy demand from animal feed producers and corn processors, who manufacture sweetners and food additives.

But Agriculture Minister Han Changfu has said the harvest was 10 million tonnes bigger in 2010 than in 2009, strengthening China's ability to remain self-sufficient and weakening the case for imports, at least in the short term.

China sees corn, along with wheat and rice, as strategically important crops that should not need to be imported.

But in 2010, the need to supply feed mills and prevent a price spike trumped the desire for self-sufficiency in grains, and state grains trader COFCO Ltd was authorised to import corn under the state quotas for resale to feedmills. The government wants to close the door again if it can.

"China's corn imports can only be opened up gradually, as corn is more important (than soybean and cotton) to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the government will aim to be self-sufficient first, and will only seek to expand imports when they can't make it," said Huang Xiao, a manager with Capital Futures.

China's corn reserves may also be low, since the government has sold off about 49 million tonnes since 2009 and has not yet bought up any of the 2010 harvest. The plan to fight inflation by booking bulk imports implies that the shipments would have gone straight to the market, not stockpiles, although the extra supply could have freed up China's own crop for government stockpiling.

In the longer term, China's grain supply and demand will be tightly balanced and guaranteeing grain security involves "severe challenges", State Administration of Grain chief Nie Zhenbang said in a statement on Thursday. (Reporting by Tom Miles, Niu Shuping, and Tracy Zheng; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Keiron Henderson)

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