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UPDATE 1-EXCLUSIVE-Mexico finmin sees capital flows recovery

Published 03/27/2011, 10:55 PM
Updated 03/27/2011, 11:00 PM

* Cordero says investors assimilating Arab unrest news

* Sees investment flows to emerging markets gathering pace (Adds comments on reserve accumulation, policy meetings)

By Jason Lange

CALGARY, Alberta, March 27 (Reuters) - Investment flows into Mexico and other emerging markets are recovering as investors digest widespread unrest in the Arab world, Mexico's finance minister told Reuters in an interview on Sunday.

"We had evidence about a slowdown in the arrival of the flows to emerging markets and in particular to Mexico," Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero said.

After appreciating sharply in the final three months of last year, Mexico's peso has traded in a much tighter range since unrest exploded in the Arab world during recent months, including the eruption of civil war in Libya.

"But as the news has been analyzed and assimilated, the flows have picked up some of their pace," Cordero said.

Mountains of cash have flowed into Latin American over the last year as investors seek higher yields than those offered in the developed world where central bankers are keeping interest rates low to help their slow-growing economies. In Mexico, foreign purchase of debt more than tripled in 2010.

Investment flows into Mexico and other developing countries will probably not reverse until the United States and Europe start to raise interest rates, Cordero said.

Mexico is increasing its international reserves to deal with any sudden reversal in investment flows, but Cordero said he expects the transition will be gradual.

He said Mexico has no plans to accelerate the accumulation of dollars. "We are comfortable with the pace at which we are building reserves."

Cordero also said commodities prices have not been boosting Mexican inflation.

"That is giving us room to maneuver on both monetary and fiscal policies," he said.

Cordero participates in monetary policy discussions with the country's central bank policy board but does not have a vote on interest rate decisions. He said he does voice his opinion at the meetings regarding where the government thinks interest rates should be.

While high commodities prices have been boosting inflation across Latin America, Cordero said he doesn't think prices for raw materials will remain high in the long term.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Eric Walsh)

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