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FOREX-Euro stung by Ireland downgrade, losses capped

Published 04/15/2011, 07:47 AM
Updated 04/15/2011, 07:52 AM
ABDN
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* Euro slips on two-notch Ireland cut by Moody's

* Rate differentials, sovereign buying offer support

* Euro brushes off higher-than-expected euro zone CPI data

(Updates, adds details, quote)

By Anirban Nag and Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - The euro fell on Friday after Moody's cut Ireland's rating to just above 'junk' status, keeping the single currency zone's debt problems in the limelight, though losses were likely to be offset by bids from sovereign buyers.

Also helping cap losses was the diverging outlook for monetary policy in Europe and the United States. Several top Federal Reserve officials have sounded relaxed about inflation, bolstering the view the Fed is still some way from normalising its ultra-loose monetary policy. [ID:nN14167673]

The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points last week and investors are pricing in chances of two more rate increases before the end of this year.

"In the short term, interest rate differentials will still be the key driver for the euro/dollar despite these downgrades which have been priced in by the market," said Paul Robson, currency strategist, at RBS Global Banking.

"The euro zone periphery is a key risk but unless ongoing talk of recapitalisation of Spanish banks and Greek debt restructuring come to a head, we will see rate differentials support the euro."

Moody's cut Ireland's sovereign rating by two notches to Baa3 and left the outlook negative, citing an expected deterioration in the government's financial strength and a weaker economic growth outlook. [ID:nLDE73E0DU]

The euro slipped 0.2 percent on the day to $1.4460 , well below a 15-month high of $1.4521 touched earlier this week. Traders said Asian central banks had bids at $1.4415/20 and then at $1.4385/90.

On the upside, an option barrier lies at $1.4525 and there are stops above that level, going up to $1.4550, traders said.

The euro showed little reaction to euro zone inflation numbers which surprised on the upside, backing views that the ECB will continue to raise rates in coming months. [ID:nBRLFFE7CY]

The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 83.20 yen , but losses were limited, with traders saying Japanese life insurance companies have been buying the dollar and the euro at its lows with stops in the dollar/yen pair building below 83 yen.

The dollar was little changed versus a currency basket <.DXY>.

PERIPHERAL DEBT PROBLEMS

Market players said the euro could find the going tough above $1.45 given concern about sovereign debt problems, which have escalated this week as concerns about a possible Greek restructuring gather pace. [ID:nLDE73D0XQ]

Some fund managers say an ongoing tightening in overall euro zone monetary conditions, through interest rate rises and a higher exchange rate, could stifle the economic recovery of countries in the region which were saddled with massive debts.

Ken Dickson, investment director of currencies at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, said the euro was "just too high" in light of this issue, which would haunt the single currency in the longer term.

Still, the market was focused on whether Spain will need a financial lifeline rather than addressing the impact of broader fiscal issues in the region, he said, adding that Spain's avoidance of a bailout for now was helping to bolster the euro.

"We're in a sell zone for the euro, but we're worried that because the market is looking at Spain and not the others we could extend the period where the euro appreciates and it could remain overvalued for longer," Dickson said.

"Even though we have stronger views in the longer term, our concerns about how far things can stretch in the near term have meant that funds with shorter investment horizons have kept positions light."

Standard Life manages 156.9 billion pounds ($256.7 billion) in assets.

Other asset managers took a different view of the euro, with Japan's Kokusai Asset Management saying it plans to increase the weighting of euro-denominated bonds in its $33 billion bond fund, the world's second largest, due to a solid outlook for euro zone economies. [ID:nL3E7FF0VV].

Investors awaited a meeting of Group of 20 leaders in Washington later in the day, which was expected to address imbalances between export-reliant Asian countries led by China and debt-laden Western countries led by the United States.

($1=.6111 Pound)

(Editing by Susan Fenton, John Stonestreet)

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