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GRAINS-U.S. soy, wheat rise half pct after Fed decision

Published 11/04/2010, 12:22 AM
Updated 11/04/2010, 12:24 AM
USD/AUD
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* Soy, wheat futures up half pct on Fed move

* Grain markets eye USDA's world demand/supply report

* Technicals see wheat rising towards $8.80 per bushel (Adds details, quotes)

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean and wheat futures rose around 0.6 percent on Thursday, while corn was up 0.3 percent following a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into financial markets by buying bonds.

The Fed launched a fresh effort to support a struggling U.S. economy on Wednesday, committing to buy $600 billion in government bonds despite concerns the programme could do more harm than good.

"We have had a higher start across the commodity complex, soybean, corn and wheat have all bounced following the Fed QE announcement which is ultimately seen as bearish for the U.S. dollar," said Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Chicago Board of Trade December wheat rose 0.6 percent to $6.94-½ per bushel by 0319 GMT and soybeans for November delivery added 0.65 percent to $12.35-½ a bushel. CBOT December corn was up 0.3 percent to $5.82-½ per bushel.

The U.S. dollar was on the backfoot on Thursday after the Federal Reserve launched a controversial policy to buy more government debt, hovering near its 2010 low against a basket of currencies and a 28-year trough against the Australian dollar.

The attention in Chicago grain markets is turning to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report on global demand/supply of agricultural products due to be released on Tuesday.

"The grain markets are now going to move on to focus on the USDA crop report," said Mathews.

"The outside markets will continue to be important but there is going to be more and more market talk about potential supply downgrades in the United States, particularly with respect to the corn crop."

Analysts expect the USDA to further lower its U.S. corn crop production estimate after cutting its forecast by 4 percent last month after late summer heat reduced yields.

The USDA's estimate of the U.S. soybeans harvest could also be cut further after a 2 percent drop in October due to a hot end to summer.

Analytical firm Informa Economics projected the 2010 U.S. corn crop at 12.592 billion bushels, with an average yield of 155.0 bushels per acre. This compares with Informa's previous forecast of 12.9 billion bushels for corn.

Informa raised its U.S. 2010 soybean production forecast slightly to 3.425 billion bushels, reflecting an average yield of 44.6 bpa.

Worries about dry weather in the U.S. wheat belt had added momentum to a grains complex already shaken this year by a severe drought in Russia that prompted an export embargo there. But the latest forecasts show rain next week in Kansas, the top U.S. wheat state. PRICES AT 0319 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 694.50 4.25 +0.62% +0.04% 688.94 48 CBOT corn 582.50 1.50 +0.26% +1.17% 543.61 65 CBOT soy 1246.50 9.00 +0.73% +1.01% 1171.41 75 CBOT rice $14.73 $0.18 +1.24% +2.83% $13.75 62 WTI crude $85.26 $0.57 +0.67% +1.62% $81.85 72 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.414 $0.017 +1.24% +1.35% USD/AUD 1.005 0.020 +2.02% +2.17% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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