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GRAINS-Corn falls for 2nd day as Goldman turns bearish

Published 04/15/2011, 12:48 PM
Updated 04/15/2011, 12:52 PM
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* Goldman underweights commodities for 3 to 6 months

* Recommended profit-taking earlier this week

* Corn hit hardest due to more longs in market

* Coming up: US weather outlook promises more volatility (New throughout, recasts to include U.S. trading session, fresh analyst quotes, changes dateline from PARIS/SINGAPORE)

By Sam Nelson

CHICAGO, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures fell 1 percent on Friday and were on track for their first weekly loss in five weeks as the market lost favor with investors after another downbeat outlook from Goldman Sachs.

"The big elephant in the room is Goldman and their second recommendation this week to exit commodities. It appears Goldman has lost their bull flavor," said Don Roose, analyst and president of U.S. Commodities, Des Moines, Iowa.

Goldman had been bullish on commodities from last summer through the winter, buying everything from crude oil to corn.

But the influential banking and securities firm on Monday recommended that commodity investors take profits, and that knocked down everything from crude oil to grains. On Friday the firm recommended investors underweight commodities over a three to six month horizon, saying that oil prices are higher than justified by current supply and demand.

Wheat and soybeans fell early on the Goldman advice but turned positive in choppy trade on positioning and bargain buying ahead of the weekend.

Corn was weak relative to soy and wheat since there had been a larger buildup of long positions in the corn market.

Long-liquidation of May corn and rolling or spreading of longs from the May to deferred months also weighed on the spot May corn futures contract.

There also was profit taking of corn/wheat and corn/soybean spreads.

Corn and wheat were on track to post their first declines in five-weeks, and some bargain buying surfaced in soybeans as the market tried to consolidate near a one-month low.

Soybeans also garnered some support from news on Friday that China, the world's largest soy importer, bought some soy from the United States despite a glut of soy and soy products after a bumper harvest in South America.

At 10:32 a.m. CDT (1532 GMT), CBOT May corn was down 8 cents per bushel at $7.46-1/4, May wheat was up 1 cent at $7.41-1/2 and May soybeans were up 1-3/4 at $13.32-3/4.

FUNDAMENTALS TURNING BEARISH?

Prospects for the tightest corn stocks in the United States since the 1930s had driven the corn market to a record highs, most recently on Monday. But some traders and analysts caution that global production of feed grains and oilseeds is on the rise, which could put pressure on futures markets.

"Fundamentals have turned bearish. Australia's wheat crop was up, South America had a big crop harvest so global production has improved," Roose said.

Markets are expected to remain volatile next week because of harsh weather in the United States.

A drought has been stressing the hard red winter wheat crop in the U.S. Plains as it enters its critical growth period, but some rain is beginning to move into the region.

There were concerns that many U.S. farmers face delays in sowing corn because of excessively wet fields. The U.S. corn crop must be planted from roughly mid-April through early May to achieve the best yields, and delays into mid-May or later can reduce the crop's potential.

U.S. farmers were expected to plant the second largest land area to corn since 1944.

"That leaves weather as a wild card and it doesn't look like there will be much corn planted for at least 10 days. We're not off to a fierce fast pace and that's supporting new-crop December corn and pressuring new-crop November soybeans," Roose said.

At 10:21 a.m. CDT (1521 GMT), new-crop December CBOT corn was down 2-1/2 cents per bushel at $6.53, but it had gained roughly 6 cents versus spot May.

In contrast, new-crop November soy lost about 5 to 6 cents versus the May.

If U.S. farmers cannot plant corn due to the wet weather they may shift plantings to soybeans, which could pressure new-crop soybeans and lift new-crop corn. (Reporting by Sam Nelson; editing by Jim Marshall)

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