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Grain futures - weekly outlook: July 13 - 17

Published 07/12/2015, 09:37 AM
U.S. corn rallies to 13-month high after USDA cuts supply forecast
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Investing.com - U.S. corn futures rallied to a 13-month high on Friday, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered their outlook for near-term supplies of the grain and cut their estimate of this year’s U.S. harvest.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, US corn for September delivery hit an intraday peak of $4.3913 a bushel, a level not seen since June 30, 2014, before closing at $4.3460, up 6.0 cents, or 1.4%.

On the week, corn futures rose 8.5 cents, or 1.37%, the fourth straight weekly gain.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that U.S. corn inventories at the end of the 2014-15 season in August will total 1.779 billion bushels, down sharply from its June estimate for 1.876 billion and lower than market expectations of 1.810 billion bushels.

The cut reflected increased corn exports and greater usage by livestock producers, according to the USDA.

The agency said that it expects a harvest of 13.53 billion bushels of corn in the marketing year beginning this autumn, down from its June outlook for 13.63 billion, as farmers will plant less corn.

The USDA projected corn yields of 166.8 bushels an acre, unchanged from its previous estimate.

Meanwhile, US soybeans for August delivery tacked on 5.6 cents, or 0.56%, to settle at $10.3200 a bushel on Friday, after touching a daily high of $10.4820, the most since July 1.

The USDA said that domestic soybean stocks at the end of the 2014-15 season will total 255 million bushels, down from a previous estimate of 330 million bushels and below market expectations of 287 million.

The agency left its average yield estimate at 46 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.

According to the USDA, farmers will harvest 3.885 billion bushels of soybeans in the 2015-16 season, up from 3.85 billion in its June outlook and above expectations for 3.794 billion bushels.

The agency pegged domestic soybean ending stocks next year at 425 million bushels, compared to an estimate of 475 million a month ago.

Despite Friday's gains, the August soybean contract lost 0.38 cents, or 0.52%, last week, halting six consecutive weeks of gains, as concerns over the health of China's economy weighed.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest soybean consumer.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, US wheat for September delivery fell to a session low $5.6840 a bushel, the weakest level since June 29, before ending at $5.7600, down 2.0 cents, or 0.35%. On the week, the September wheat contract dropped 10.38 cents, or 2.23%.

The USDA forecast domestic wheat output will total 2.148 billion bushels in the 2015-16 season that started June 1, up from 2.121 billion bushels estimated last month.

Domestic wheat reserves at the end of the 2015-16 season will total 842 million bushels, compared to a forecast of 814 million last month.

According to the USDA, global ending wheat inventories next season will rise to 202.4 million metric tons from an estimated 200.4 million tons in 2014-15.

In the week ahead, market players will focus on the release of key USDA data, including crop progress and weekly export sales figures.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.

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