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Grain futures - weekly outlook: February 16 - 20

Published 02/15/2015, 08:46 AM
U.S. soybean futures rise on strong export demand
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Investing.com - U.S. soybean futures rose for the third consecutive session on Friday to hit the highest level in almost two weeks, amid indications of strong demand for U.S. supplies.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, US soybeans for March delivery tacked on 6.6 cents, or 0.69%, on Friday to settle at $9.9040 a bushel by close of trade. Earlier in the day, prices hit $9.9760, the most since February 3.

For the week, the March soybean contract rose 16.27 cents, or 1.66%, the second consecutive weekly gain.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday that U.S. farmers sold 746,200 tons of soybeans last week, above expectations.

On Tuesday, the USDA said soybean exports for the current crop year will hit 1.79 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from January's forecast.

The agency pegged domestic soybean stocks at the end of the 2014-15 season on August 31 at 385 million bushels, down from 410 million bushels a month ago, due to rising demand on both the domestic and export fronts.

According to the USDA, global soybean ending stocks were expected to total 89.26 million tons, down from 90.78 million tons estimated last month.

Despite recent gains, prices of the oilseed remain vulnerable amid optimism over crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina.

Meanwhile, US wheat for March delivery rallied to $5.3420 a bushel on Friday, the highest level since January 26, before ending at $5.3300 by close of trade, up 11.6 cents, or 2.25%.

On the week, the March wheat contract added 5.75 cents, or 1.11%, also the second straight weekly advance.

Despite recent gains, wheat has been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks amid ample global supplies and indications of reduced demand for U.S. wheat.

The USDA forecast U.S. reserves in the season ending in May at 692 million bushels, up from last month’s forecast of 687 million, citing sluggish export demand.

The agency cut its U.S. wheat export projection to 900 million bushels, down 2.7% from January's estimate, citing increased competition from the European Union.

According to the USDA, global ending wheat inventories will total 197.85 million tons, above expectations and the most since the 2009-10 marketing year.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, US corn for March delivery climbed 4.2 cents, or 1.11%, on Friday to close at $3.8720 a bushel, as gains in wheat supported prices.

Wheat and corn prices are linked because both can be used as animal feed.

On the week, the March corn contract eased up 1.95 cents, or 0.58%.

According to the USDA, domestic corn inventories at the end of the 2014-15 season in August will total 1.827 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from an estimate in January, amid increased demand from ethanol producers.

The agency also projected global ending corn stockpiles at 189.6 million metric tons for the 2014-15 season, up from a previous forecast of 189.15 million tons.

In the week ahead, market players will focus on the release of key USDA data, including crop progress and weekly export sales figures.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.

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