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INTERVIEW-Polish growth accelerating, zloty stable-minister

Published 10/25/2010, 05:45 AM
Updated 10/25/2010, 05:52 AM

* Economy seen solid, Q3-Q4 GDP above 3.5 percent-minister

* Zloty seen stable in months ahead

* Zloty near 4 vs euro good for economy

* Inflation seen higher ahead than anticipated By Karolina Slowikowska and Pawel Sobczak

WARSAW, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Poland's economy could expand by more than 3.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters, but inflation may prove higher than previous forecasts and top the central bank's target this year, a deputy finance minister told Reuters in an interview.

In comments cleared for release on Monday, Ludwik Kotecki also said he expected the zloty to remain stable in months ahead and that around 4 to the euro remained a "good level" for the economy. The zloty now trades around 3.95 per euro.

He said the government's inflation forecasts may be too optimistic and that price growth could top the central bank's 2.5 percent target at the end of the year but should not exceed 3 percent.

"Recent macroeconomic data, including industrial output data, proved better not only from what we had expected but also from what markets had expected," Kotecki said.

"This means that this will also have an impact on GDP data - both the third and fourth quarters, when growth should be faster than in the second, that is faster than 3.5 percent."

Polish growth slowed to 1.7 percent in 2009 on the back of the global downturn but has accelerated since, mainly driven by domestic demand and consumption.

Investments remain in negative territory, however, and Kotecki expected this to change.

"When it comes to the structure (of growth), we still lack private investments. The private sector needs time after the crisis to ensure the economic situation is stable and see about economic prospects," he said.

"I am convinced that the private sector will gain momentum next year. I am an optimist," he said, adding next year's growth could accelerate to 3.5-4.0 percent.

He saw the economy's "potential growth" at 3.5-4.0 percent, signalling that next year's economic expansion could lead to inflation pressures as the output gap was closing.

"I currently estimate the potential growth level at 3.5-4.0 percent. This growth level is also possible in real terms next year. When it comes to the potential growth, the so-called output gap is near closing. This could happen next year," Kotecki said.

Inflation surprised in September by jumping to the central bank's 2.5 percent target from 2.0 percent in August, solidifying expectations for monetary tightening still this year. But analysts remain split on when rates will go up from the current record-low of 3.5 percent.

The central bank meets this week to discuss rates and will make its decision on Wednesday.

"Inflation at the end of the year will exceed the central bank's target (2.5 percent) but certainly not 3.5 percent. It will probably be no higher than 3 percent at the end of the year," Kotecki said

"Next year inflation will probably not be lower than 2.3 percent (average annual inflation envisaged in the 2011 budget bill). There is the risk of underestimating inflation."

Kotecki praised the zloty's recent behaviour, remaining in a range of 3.99 to 3.89 against the euro since Sept. 1, and said the currency would be positive for Poland's economy ahead.

"In the base scenario, I don't expect any sudden moves in any direction. Just as in the last few months the zloty has been hovering, it will probably be hovering in the coming months," Kotecki said.

"Having the zloty close to 4 (against the euro) is beneficial for the economy. It is not inflationary, it is not too strong for exporters, it is not too weak for importers. This stabilising of the zloty is good." (Writing by Karolina Slowikowska; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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