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Gold plunges as mixed U.S. data adds uncertainty to Fed rate hike timing

Published 05/04/2016, 12:51 PM
Updated 05/04/2016, 01:06 PM
Gold plummeted by 1% on Wednesday to close under $1,280 an ounce
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Investing.com -- Gold futures fell considerably on Wednesday but remained near 15-month highs, as a mixed bag of U.S. economic data provided few indications on the long-term path of the economy, potentially leaving the Federal Reserving at an impasse while it weighs the timing of its next interest rate hike.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery traded in a broad range between $1,277.00 and $1,291.55 an ounce before settling at $1,278.85, down $13.15 or 1.02% on the session. Since surging to fresh yearly-highs at the end of last week, gold has closed lower in three consecutive sessions. The precious metal is still up by approximately 20% since the start of the year and is on pace for one of its strongest first halves in decades.

Gold likely gained support at $1,063.20, the low from January 4 and was met with resistance at $1,322.10, the high from August 8, 2014.

On Wednesday morning, financial information services provider Markit said business activity rebounded in April as new employment opportunities rose at a modest pace, while input cost inflation picked up at its fastest rate in more than a year. As a result, Markit's U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 52.8 for April, up 0.7 from the flash reading earlier in the month. Analysts expected a consensus of 52.0, following March's final reading of 51.3.

At the same time, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its Non-Manufacturing Index surged 1.2 points to 55.7 in April, far exceeding forecasts for a 54.7 reading. The gains were concentrated in new orders, which surged three points to 59.9, delivering its highest rate of growth since October. Meanwhile, though factory orders rose by 1.1% in March, they followed a downwardly revised decline of 1.9% over the previous month. Within the report, defense goods jumped by 49% amid an uptick in defense aircraft orders.

While the dollar bounced off near 9-month lows on Wednesday, further gains were softened by relatively weak employment figures ahead of a critical jobs report from the Labor Department at week's end. In a monthly report, the ADP Research Institute said private payroll rose by 156,000 in April, sharply below consensus estimates of 193,000. Over the first three months of the Year, the labor market has added an average of 202,000 private jobs per month.

After leaving short-term interest rates steady in April for the third consecutive meeting this year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sent broad indications that will take a data-driven approach with the timing of future rate increases. While the Fed has been pleased with solid improvements in the labor market, it has expressed concern with the slow pace of gains in inflation.

Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in rising rate environments.

On the foreign exchange market, USD/JPY surged more than 0.55%, bouncing off 18-month lows from the previous day. In Tuesday's session the yen continued its recent hot streak amid heightened skepticism from investors that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the coming months in determined attempts to stave off deflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose more than 0.30% to an intraday-high of 93.36. The index is still down approximately 7% since the start of December. Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

Silver for May delivery fell 0.159 or 0.91% to $17.340 an ounce.

Copper for May delivery lost 0.032 or 1.44% to 2.187 a pound.

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