By Barani Krishnan
Investing.com - Investor confidence in the economy is declining and faith in safe havens is surging. A weaker-than-expected report on U.S. private-sector hiring hammered Wall Street for a second day in a row on Wednesday, sending investors into the safety of gold.
Futures and spot gold both returned to the key bullish level of $1,500 per ounce after ADP showed private payrolls growth in September was less than expected, while August was not as strong as previously estimated. Wall Street's main indexes were on course for their sharpest drop in nearly six weeks after the ADP said "businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring," with small enterprises becoming "especially hesitant."
U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $18.90, or 1.3%, at $1,507.90 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Spot gold, reflective of trades in bullion, was up $21.75, or 1.5%, at $1,500.86 by 2:26 PM ET (18:26 GMT).
Gold hit a two-month low of $1,465 in Tuesday’s intraday trade before turning higher. The rebound was inspired by a ten-year-low in the reading for U.S. manufacturing activity released by the Institute of Supply Management, which put the brakes on risk-taking across markets.
Wednesday’s ADP payroll data added to the bullish fervor in gold. The ADP numbers come ahead of Friday’s all-important September U.S. jobs report.
Weaker nonfarm payrolls in Friday’s dataset “could help to seal the deal” for gold bulls, analysts at TD Securities said, noting that the Federal Reserve could be prompted into another rate cut after the back-to-back quarter-point reductions in July and September.
Bond yields continued to head lower on Wednesday, with the 2-Year Treasury yield falling to a four-week low of 1.50% as traders priced-in the growing likelihood of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
According to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the implied probability of another cut before the end of the year is now around 87.5%, while the chance of action already at the October Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting has risen to just under 75% from 64% a week ago.
“A particularly weak print could also see the Fed committee shift its narrative on the prospect of future cuts. In this context, investors are once again welcoming gold's warm embrace, following the (recent) sharp technically driven selloff,” TD said.
Algorithmic trend followers could also be adding to gold’s appeal by raising selling pressure on major U.S. equity indices, the brokerage said.
Analysts at Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen, meanwhile, see gold averaging $1,600 through the current quarter and rising to an average of $1,850 in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), led by Natasha Kaneva, wrote in a weekly note that with the long-term upward trend clearer than the short-term one, selling short-dated gold call options to finance longer-dated calls could be “attractive.”