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Gold posts solid gains, as IMF cuts global economic growth forecasts

Published 10/06/2015, 12:51 PM
Updated 10/06/2015, 01:05 PM
Gold surged more than $8 an ounce on Tues. to close above $1,145
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Investing.com -- Gold futures rose considerably on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar, as the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth for the second time this year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery traded in a broad range between $1,134.60 and $1,150.90 an ounce, before settling at $1,146.00, up 8.40 or 0.74% on the session. At one point on Tuesday, gold reached its highest level since September 24. The precious metal also closed above $1,140 an ounce for only the fourth time over the last 30 sessions. Over the last month of trading, though, gold has gained approximately 2.5% in value.

Gold likely gained support at $1,112.10 the low from Sept. 30 and was met with resistance at $1,169.00, the high from Aug. 24.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund, a Washington-based organization mandated to ensure the stability of the international monetary system, slashed its global economic growth forecast for the second time in 2015. Citing weakness in China and soft commodity prices, the IMF estimated that the world's economy will grow at 3.1% this year and 3.6% in 2016. Both estimates are 0.2% below the IMF's July forecasts. In April, the IMF downgraded its 2015 forecast by 0.4% and its growth forecast for 2016 by 0.2%.

When projecting short-term growth in the U.S., the IMF estimates that its economy will grow 2.6% this year and by 2.8% in 2016. The IMF also expects growth in the euro zone to increase by 1.5% and 1.6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In Japan, the organization projects economic growth of 0.6% this year and a full 1.0% in 2016.

The IMF also forecasts a sharp deceleration in growth among emerging markets, as commodity prices continue to plummet. In its latest forecast, the IMF cut growth in emerging markets to 4% for 2015.

"Prospects across the main countries and regions remain uneven," the IMF said in its October, 2015, World Economic Outlook. "Relative to last year, the recovery in advanced economies is expected to pick up slightly, while activity in emerging market and developing economies is projected to slow for the fifth year in a row, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries.

Gold is viewed as a safe-haven for investors in periods of economic instability.

In China, the IMF forecasts growth of 6.8% this year and 6.3% in 2016. Annual economic growth in China has not dipped below 7.0% in more than a decade.

Meanwhile, Chinese markets remained closed on Tuesday for its National Day holiday. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer of the precious metal.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.65% to 95.53, its lowest level in two weeks before rebounding slightly in afternoon trading. Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

Silver for December delivery jumped 0.272 or 1.76% to 15.975 an ounce.

Copper for December delivery was unchanged, closing Tuesday's session at 2.356 a pound.

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