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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 12-16

Published 04/11/2010, 09:07 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – The yen last week pulled back from a 7-month low it hit against the U.S. dollar the previous week, rallying amid fears over Greece's debt crisis and on speculation that China will change its yuan policy in the near term.

USD/JPY hit 93.14 at the close of trade on Friday, approaching Thursday's 1-week low of 92.83. The pair is likely to find support at 89.63, the low of March 9, and resistance at 94.69, the high of April 2.

Next week, the Bank of Japan is set to publish reports on bank lending and the country's money stock, as well release as key minutes from a policy-setting meeting. Japan will also publish data on inflation and industrial production, and the BOJ governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, is due to speak at a public engagement.
 
The United States, meanwhile, is scheduled to publish reports on unemployment claims, the retail and manufacturing sectors, its trade balance and U.S. Treasury debt. The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, is also set to speak at a number of events.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/JPY.

Sunday, April 11

Late Sunday, the BOJ will begin the week with the publication of minutes from its recent monetary policy meeting, which provide insights into the economic conditions that influenced the central bank's decision on where to set interest rates. Japan will also release reports on bank lending and money stock.

Monday, April 12

The U.S. will publish its Federal Budget Balance, the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

Also Monday, the BOJ will publish its monthly Corporate Goods Price Index, a measure of the change in the price of goods sold by corporations, which is an important indicator of consumer inflation.

Tuesday, April 13

The U.S. will release data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Also Tuesday, Bernanke is set to speak at an event in Washington, D.C. Traders will likely scrutinize his comments for clues to future shifts in monetary policy.

Wednesday, April 14

Shirakawa is due to speak at a function in Tokyo. The U.S. will then publish monthly CPI data and a monthly report on retail sales, after which Bernanke is due to testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

The Fed will later publish its Beige Book, which contains analysis used by the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee ahead of its decision on interest rates, and the U.S. will publish weekly data on crude oil inventories.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. will publish its monthly producer price index, a key indicator of inflation, and a weekly report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, April 15

Japan will publish revised monthly data on industrial production, an important gauge of overall economic health. The U.S. will later release a closely watched report on initial jobless claims.

The U.S. Treasury will also publish its TIC Long-Term purchases report, which measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will key publish data on the manufacturing sector in the city, as will the Federal Reserve Bank of New York do for New York State.

Friday, April 16

The U.S. will publish key data on the number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month, and on housing starts. Also Friday, the University of Michigan will release a report on U.S. consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

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