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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: October 1 - 5

Published 09/30/2012, 07:23 AM
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Investing.com - Crude oil prices settled modestly higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses after results of independent stress tests showed that the recapitalization needs of Spanish banks amounted to EUR60 billion, broadly in line with market expectations.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November added 0.2% Friday to settle at USD92.03 a barrel by close of trade.

Despite the day’s gains, New York-traded crude oil futures fell 1.1% on the week, amid growing concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future oil demand prospects.

The Bank of Spain announced Friday that the recapitalization needs of Spanish banks amounted to EUR59.3 billion, broadly in line with market expectations.

"The results confirm that the Spanish banking sector is mostly solvent and viable, even in an extremely adverse and highly unlikely macroeconomic setting," the Economics Ministry said in a press release following the results.

The stress test results came a day after the Spanish government announced a crisis budget for 2013, based mostly on spending cuts, in what many analysts see as an effort to pre-empt the likely conditions of an international bailout.  

The yield on Spanish 10-year government bonds ended the week at 5.94%.

Market players will be watching for a potential downgrade of Spanish sovereign debt by Moody's Investors Service in the coming days as the deadline for that review closes.

In the U.S., data Friday showed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index fell unexpectedly in September, entering contraction territory for the first time since September 2009.

The index fell to seasonally adjusted 49.7 in September from 53.0 the previous month. Analysts had expected the Chicago PMI to remain unchanged at 53.0 in September.

Separately, a revised report by the University of Michigan showed that its index of consumer sentiment fell more-than-expected in September, ticking down to a seasonally adjusted 78.3 from 79.2 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index o fall to 79.0 in September.

Also Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said that personal spending rose in line with expectations in August, ticking up 0.5% after a 0.4% increase the previous month.

The flurry of data came a day after a report showed that the U.S. economy expanded 1.3% in the second quarter, down from a preliminary estimate of 1.7%, while separate data showed that U.S. durable goods orders fell 13.2% in August, the steepest decline since January 2009, compared to expectations for a 5.0% decline.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Oil prices also drew support from ongoing concerns over diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the United Nations on Thursday evening that the world must impose "red lines" on Iran’s uranium enrichment program to prevent it from attaining nuclear weapons.

OPEC’s third-biggest crude producer may be able to build an atomic weapon by next year, Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on the European Central Bank’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, as investors continue to eye developments in Spain.

The U.S. is to release its monthly report on non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the faltering labor market.

Market participants will also continue to monitor rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Africa, amid growing fears over a disruption to supplies from the region.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for November delivery settled at USD112.14 a barrel by close of trade on Friday.

The London-traded Brent contract added 0.5% over the week, with the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts standing at USD20.11 a barrel by close of trade Friday.

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