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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: July 8 - 12

Published 07/07/2013, 07:26 AM
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Investing.com - New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session at the highest level since May 2012, as stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs data boosted optimism over the U.S. economy.

Growing concerns over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East amid violence in Egypt further buoyed prices.  

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in August rallied 2.2% Friday to settle the week at USD103.48 a barrel by close of trade.

Earlier in the day, New York-traded oil prices rose to a session high of USD103.49 a barrel, the strongest May 3, 2012.

On the week, Nymex oil futures surged 6.9% on the week, the biggest weekly advance since February 2011.

The Department of Labor said Friday the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. May's figure was revised upwards to 195,000 jobs from 175,000, while April's figure was revised up to 199,000 from 149,000.

The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% last month

Oil traders have been paying close attention to readings on U.S. employment levels because they offer insight into the economic health of the world's largest crude oil consumer.

An improving economy is generally correlated with increased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline.

Meanwhile, oil traders continued to monitor political turmoil in Egypt.

Market players were concerned that the escalating tensions would lead to the closure of the Suez Canal, which transports approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil a day from northern Africa to the U.S.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration identified the Suez Canal as one of seven “world oil transit chokepoints” and an “important transit corridor for world oil markets” in its 2012 Energy Outlook report.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for August delivery jumped 2% on Friday to settle the week at USD107.71 a barrel.

Earlier in the session, Brent prices rose to a daily high of USD107.88 a barrel, the strongest level since April 4.

The London-traded Brent contract added 5.3% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD4.23 a barrel.

The gap between the contracts narrowed to the smallest level since December 2010 earlier in the week, amid an improving production outlook in the North Sea and indications of declining stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil futures.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, for further hints regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Market players are also looking ahead to the release of Chinese trade data as well as monthly inflation figures.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

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