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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: February 1 - 5

Published 01/31/2016, 06:40 AM
© Reuters.  Oil records second straight weekly gain on hopes for production deal
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Investing.com - Oil prices rallied for the fourth straight session on Friday, amid speculation OPEC and non-OPEC producers may be edging closer to a deal to cut production in an effort to tackle one of the biggest supply gluts in decades.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery surged $1.19, or 3.42%, on Friday to close the week at $35.99 a barrel.

A day earlier, prices climbed 87 cents, or 2.56%, after Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Saudi Arabia proposed to cut oil production by each country by up to 5%.

On the week, London-traded Brent futures jumped $3.81, or 10.58%, the second consecutive weekly gain. Brent prices are up nearly $9.00, or 25%, since falling to a 12-year low of $27.10 on January 20.

Despite recent gains, Brent ended January with a loss of 3.7% amid ongoing concerns over a global supply glut.

Global crude production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil and after a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production in order to defend market share. Oversupply issue will be exacerbated further as Iran returns to the global oil market in the coming months.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March tacked on 40 cents, or 1.2%, to end the week at $33.62 a barrel. On Thursday, prices advanced 92 cents, or 2.85% amid hopes for a deal between major exporters to cut production.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures rose $1.43, or 4.25%, the second straight weekly gain. The U.S. benchmark has rallied almost $7.50, or 22%, since tumbling below $27 for the first time since September 2003 on January 20.

U.S. oil futures still lost 8.9% in January as investors worried that a huge oversupply in crude was coinciding with an economic slowdown, especially in China.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at $2.37, compared to a gap of $1.18 by close of trade on Thursday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes in 2016.

Market players will also be looking out for data on China's manufacturing sector due on Monday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 1

China is to publish official data on manufacturing and service sector activity as well as the Caixin manufacturing index.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify about the bank’s annual report for 2015 before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.

Tuesday, February 2

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, February 3

China is to publish its Caixin services index.

The U.S. is to publish the ADP report on private sector jobs creation and the ISM is to publish data on service sector activity, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil supplies.

Thursday, February 4

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

The Bank of England is to announce its interest rate decision and publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The bank is also to publish its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, February 5

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls and data on the trade balance.

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