Investing.com -- Crude continued to test two-month lows after falling considerably on Monday, as long-term concerns related to global oversupply and the ramifications of the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union remained in focus.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for August delivery traded between $44.55 and $45.77 a barrel before closing at $44.79, down 0.62 or 1.38% on the session. The front month contract for U.S. crude hovered near a $45 handle on Monday, after falling to its lowest level since May 12 earlier in the session. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for September delivery wavered between $45.91 and $47.10 a barrel, before settling at $46.26, down 0.50 or 1.05%.
Crude prices continued to slide, as investors responded to signals that producers in Canada and Nigeria appear ready to return online. In June, WTI crude surged above $51 a barrel for the first time in 10 months, as production slowdowns from the Canadian wildfires and a constant barrage of rogue attacks on pipelines in Southern Nigeria temporarily eased worries for jittery investors. At the same time, OPEC production lingers near record-highs as Iran continues to ramp up output in the wake of its historic return to global markets and Saudi Arabia ignores calls to freeze production.
In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Monday it anticipates lower oil prices through 2017 to have a considerable effect on restraining production over the next year, before rebounding sharply over the next two decades. It comes days after the EIA said weekly production for the week ending on July 1 plummeted by 192,000 or 2.25% to 9.428 million barrels per day, suffering its largest weekly decline since September, 2013. Over the last six months, U.S. crude output has moved lower in 23 of the last 24 weeks to fall to its lowest level since May, 2014. By comparison, weekly output in the U.S. eclipsed 9.4 million bpd 13 months ago, hitting its highest level in 44 years.
At the end of 2040, the EIA expects tight oil production associated with shale extraction to eclipse 7.0 million bpd. Next year, however, the Energy Department estimates that the figure could drop as low as 4.1 million bpd.
While U.S. crude output has fallen rapidly in recent months, gasoline and diesel markets continue to be saturated by oversupply, amid signals of extreme overproduction by refiners nationwide. The spike in gasoline production, combined with weakening demand in Asia and other key markets could provide significant downside pressure for crude prices, according to analysts.
Elsewhere, investors kept a close eye on political developments in the U.K. after Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the closely-watched Prime Minister campaign, leaving Theresa May as the lone candidate to succeed David Cameron. May's appointment on Wednesday could bolster Britain's chances of gaining access to the European Union's single market, helping assuage demand concerns throughout the euro area.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose more than 0.40% to an intraday high of 96.81. Although the dollar has rebounded sharply since the historic Brexit referendum, the index is still down more than 3% since early-December.
Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.