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COMMODITIES-Soft dollar, U.S. data revive oil, metals from swoon

Published 05/09/2011, 03:43 AM
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* Brent above $111, U.S. crude tops $99

* Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan see oil higher on tight supply

* COMEX silver jumps nearly 3 pct, gold up 0.8 pct

* Eyes on China economic data this week (Adds comments, details, updates prices)

By Manolo Serapio Jr

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - Commodities bounced back on Monday from their biggest weekly drop since 2008, as a softer dollar and upbeat U.S. employment data helped lure back shaken investors.

Brent crude oil rebounded to above $111 a barrel, U.S. silver jumped nearly 3 percent and gold edged higher after data on Friday showed U.S. private firms adding jobs at the fastest pace in five years in April and as the dollar slipped against a basket of currencies .

Concerns about the impact of soaring commodity prices on shaky economic growth in Europe and the United States, and on inflation in fast-growing economies like China and India, has been one factor cited behind last week's broad rout in the prices of raw materials, so the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls number brought some relief.

A slew of China and U.S. economic data could keep volatility high again this week, including inflation numbers that will give some indication of how far a cycle of monetary tightening has to run in China, the top driver of commodities demand growth.

"Prices have fallen very sharply and very quickly, so people are dipping their toes back in," said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell.

"With the market a lot cleaner now than it has been for some time, you can get some chunky moves in either direction."

Oil led the charge higher after both U.S. and Brent crude fell by a record of more than $16 last week. The Financial Times reported that Clive Capital, the world's largest hedge fund, lost $400 million because of the collapse of oil prices. [ID:nN08135098]

Brent crude rose 2.2 percent to $111.48 a barrel by 0738 GMT, off a high of $111.63. It tumbled $16.76 last week, its largest weekly decline in dollar terms.

U.S. crude climbed 2.4 percent to $99.52, after losing $16.75 last week, the biggest weekly drop since the contract began trading in 1983.

Some heavyweight banks came out on Friday in oil's support, with JP Morgan raising its 2011 Brent crude forecast by $10 to $120 a barrel, citing an undersupplied market. [ID:nLDE74513V]

Goldman Sachs , which in April predicted a major correction for commodities, said that while it was not ruling out a further fall in oil prices, crude could top its recent highs by 2012 on tight global supplies.

PRECIOUS REGAINS LUSTRE

Silver rose, extending gains from Friday after suffering its biggest sell-off since prices collapsed in 1980.

Spot silver rose 1.9 percent to $36.28 an ounce after losing a quarter of its value last week. COMEX silver jumped 2.9 percent to $36.33 an ounce, after diving 27 percent.

The more than 30 percent plunge in silver prices from a record high in late April, triggered by a succession of margin hikes on U.S. silver futures, helped set off the broad commodity decline.

A record $1 billion outflow from the iShares Silver Trust in the week ended May 4 fueled silver's dizzying price decline, with holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund hitting a six-month low of 10,253.75 tonnes by Friday. [ID:nN06293857]

Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,505.60 an ounce after falling more than 4 percent last week.

"Much better buying value has been restored for gold," said Thurtell. "Silver is still probably overpriced but not as badly overpriced as it was."

EYES ON CHINA DATA

U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 244,000 in April, the largest rise in 11 months, and topping economists' estimate of 186,000, data showed on Friday. U.S. private companies created 268,000 jobs, the most since February 2006, while government payrolls shrank. [ID:nOAT004799]

The data, which revived confidence in the world's No. 1 economy, boosted commodities on Friday after Thursday's bloodbath, although a stronger dollar made those gains short-lived.

The 19-commodity benchmark Reuters-Jefferies CRB index dropped 9 percent last week, its biggest weekly decline since December 2008.

All eyes are now on Chinese data this week, starting with trade numbers on Tuesday, for signs of import demand from the world's top commodity consumer.

"If there's evidence that the Chinese are still not buying or have cut their imports a lot you'll probably find that copper could revisit the lows of last week," said Thurtell.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.5 percent to $8,959 a tonne and Shanghai's benchmark copper closed up 1.6 percent at 66,980 yuan.

Chicago wheat led grains higher, rising 1.5 percent to $7.70-1/2 a bushel, supported by unfavourable weather conditions in the United States and Europe. (Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.; Editing by Michael Urquhart)

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