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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: February 18 - 22

Published 02/17/2013, 10:43 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas futures ended Friday’s session at a five-week low, as Thursday’s bearish inventory report and the milder outlook for several days next week weighed on near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March fell 0.1% Friday to settle at USD3.162 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

Earlier in the day, prices fell to a session low of USD3.126 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since January 10.

On the week, natural gas prices lost 3.15%, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

Natural gas future prices plunged nearly 4% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage fell by 157 billion cubic feet last week, disappointing expectations for a drop of 162 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 113 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 154 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.527 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 16% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 118 billion cubic feet to 154 billion cubic feet. Inventories fell by 155 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 140 billion cubic feet.

If withdrawals for the rest of winter season match the five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season at 2.076 trillion cubic feet, nearly 20% above normal, but 16% below last year's end-winter record of 2.48 trillion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, natural gas traders continued to monitor weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks in an attempt to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on winter heating demand.

MDA Weather Services said Friday that its one- to five-day outlook called for an "unsettled, stormy pattern" with normal or below-normal temperatures over most of the nation.

The latest U.S. National Weather Service six- to 10-day outlook issued on Thursday predicted mostly normal or below-normal temperatures for most of the country throughout the period.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

The heating fuel has lost nearly 14% since rallying to two-month high of USD3.644 per million British thermal units on January 21, after updated weather forecast models pointed to mostly mild temperatures for mid-February.

Market participants have warned of additional downside to prices, as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in February and March mean less than they do in January.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery settled at USD95.95 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, easing up 0.1% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for March delivery shed 0.8% over the week to settle at USD3.214 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

NYMEX floor trading will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, but electronic trading will continue.

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