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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: December 19 - 23

Published 12/18/2011, 05:05 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell to a four-day low against the yen on Friday, trimming some of the week’s as European leaders signaled new signs of improvement in tackling the region’s debt crisis.

USD/JPY hit 78.15 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since November 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 77.75 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.13% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 77.48, the low of December 9 and resistance at 78.15, the high of December 14.

European Union leaders laid out a new agreement to tighten fiscal rules, hoping to strengthen economic integration in the single currency bloc and tackle the region’s two-year-old debt crisis. The plan is to be discussed by member states at a meeting on Tuesday.

Also Friday, the head of the euro zone’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, said that around 600 billion euros are available to fight the euro zone's debt crisis, a greater amount than Italy and Spain's combined funding needs for 2012, and more will be provided in March if needed.

Earlier in the day, official data showed that core consumer price inflation in the U.S. rose more-than-expected in November, ticking up 0. 2% after a 0.1% increase the previous month.

The report also showed that CPI was flat after a 0.1% decline in October. Analysts had expected CPI in the U.S. to rise 0.1% in November.

Risk sentiment was lifted on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell to a three-year low of 366,000.

Data also showed that the New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions jumped to a seven-month high in December, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions doubled expectations with a reading at 10.3.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said its Tankan manufacturing index declined more than expected in the fourth quarter, falling to minus 4 from a reading at 2 the previous quarter.

The report also showed that the Tankan non-manufacturing index rose more-than-expected to 4, from a reading at 1 in the third quarter.

Earlier in the week, the Fed noted modest improvement in the U.S. economy but added that market turbulence in the face of Europe's debt woes posed a big risk, sending the greenback broadly higher.

In the week ahead investors will be keeping a close watch on Tuesday’s report on German business climate, to assess the impact of the debt crisis on the region’s largest economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release key reports on the housing sector, durable goods and jobless claims, while the Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, December 20

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts.

Wednesday, December 21

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference to discuss monetary policy. Japan is also to publish official data on the trade balance.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to produce industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on crude oil stockpiles and the treasury currency report.

Thursday, December 22

In Japan, BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any hints on the future direction of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the BoJ is to publish its monthly report.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to produce revised data on third quarter GDP, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Friday, December 23

Markets in Japan are remaining closed in observance of the Emperor's Birthday.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production as well as data on personal spending income, personal spending and new home sales.

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