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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: September 26-30

Published 09/25/2011, 10:35 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – The pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Friday, paring some of the week’s steep losses but sterling remained under pressure amid mounting speculation over the possibility of fresh monetary easing to stimulate the U.K. economy.

GBP/USD hit 1.5326 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 7, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5452 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.77% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5326, Thursday’s low and a one-year low and short-term resistance at 1.5518, the high of the same day.

Market sentiment recovered after financial leaders from the G20 group said they were “committed to a strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” after talks in Washington.

Leaders also called on the European Union to take quick action to resolve the financial crisis in the euro zone.

The pound fell sharply earlier in the week as a combination of fears over the escalating debt crisis in the euro zone and concerns over a slowdown in global growth saw investors flee riskier assets for the safety of the dollar.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said there were “significant downside risks” facing the U.S. economy. The central bank unveiled a plan to trade short-term bonds for long-term ones, in an attempt to boost the economy by pushing down long-term interest rates, a move dubbed “Operation Twist.”

The warning came after the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the global economy to 4% for 2011 and 2012 and said the world economy had entered "a dangerous new phase."

Meanwhile, investors remained concerned over the possibility of a debt default by Greece, despite repeated assurances from EU officials.

Despite its recovery on Friday the pound looks likely to remain under pressure after the minutes of the Bank of England’s September meeting indicated that the bank is leaning towards implementing more monetary easing, possibly as early as next month or November.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to remain in focus while investors will be closely watching U.S. data on second quarter economic growth in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 26


The U.S. is to produce government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Tuesday, September 27

In the U.K., BoE monetary policy committee member Adam Posen is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy. The U.K. is also to publish industry data on retail sales, an important indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday, September 28

The BoE is to release the results of its credit conditions survey, an important indicator of consumer confidence.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. The country is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 29

The BoE is to produce a report on net lending to individuals, an important indicator of consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as industry data on pending home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues regarding future monetary policy.

Friday, September 30

The U.K. is to release data on consumer confidence, an important indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal spending and inflation as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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