Aug 6 (Reuters) - Russia has announced a temporary ban on grain exports after the worst heat wave on record destroyed crops and sent world wheat prices to contract highs. The export ban could lead to the tearing-up of existing contracts and is likely to open the way for rival suppliers to win business in Russia's traditional markets.
A Reuters poll of 18 analysts and traders forecast a 25 percent decline in Russia's 2010 wheat crop year-on-year to 46.5 million tonnes. Below are details on Russia's three biggest wheat export markets in the marketing year to June 30, 2010, followed by wheat export data from the past two marketing years.
EGYPT
Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, accounted for one-third of Russia's wheat exports in the recent marketing year, despite a hiccup related to the quality of imports.
Russia supplied 6.1 million tonnes of wheat to Egypt in the 12 months to June 30, up 23 percent from the previous season.
Egypt may face a short-term supply problem after buying 360,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for shipment between Aug. 21 and Sept. 31, plus 120,000 tonnes for Aug. 11-20 shipment.
The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), Egypt's main state wheat buyer, has said it will seek to buy 60,000 tonnes a month, which could partly compensate for any shortfall in Russian supply.
European Union countries are first in line to fill the gap. French exporters in particular were given a boost on July 28, when GASC reversed a decision made in 2009 that required exporters to load 55,000-60,000-tonne cargoes at a single port.
The one-port requirement had forced French exporters to turn away from their main grain terminal at Rouen. This should no longer be a problem, provided freight costs are covered.
TURKEY
Turkey was the second-largest recipient of Russian wheat last season, purchasing 13 percent of total Russian exports.
Deliveries rose 8 percent year-on-year to 2.4 million tonnes.
Turkey, however, is usually self-sufficient in wheat and only imported such large quantities because its crops were hit by drought in 2007 and 2008. This year, the Turkish wheat crop is expected to be better, reducing its need for imports.
SYRIA
Syria is the only other market to have imported more than 1 million tonnes of Russian wheat in both 2008/09 and 2009/10. It took a 6 percent share of Russia's total exports last season.
Russian wheat deliveries to Syria rose 3 percent last season to 1.0 million tonnes.
Syria, with export demands that fluctuate depending on its own wheat harvest, is likely to require grain to make up for the Russian shortfall, and European suppliers are best placed to meet this demand.
Russian Wheat Exports
July 2008-June 2009 July 2009-June 2010 TOTAL 18,033,600 18,185,600 Non-CIS countries Egypt 4,904,300 6,052,400 Turkey 2,226,200 2,408,700 Syria 1,003,100 1,029,600 Iran 573,700 840,000 Libya 544,600 676,700 Israel 339,600 615,100 Jordan 595,800 612,100 Georgia 342,400 549,500 Yemen 483,200 545,300 Iraq 345,900 414,850 Bangladesh 583,400 378,050 Tanzania 145,500 375,300 Kenya 262,800 323,800 Armenia 327,900 315,600 Lebanon 286,200 279,500 Indonesia 105,800 253,600 Albania 133,100 230,400 Azerbaijan 1,223,900 211,600 Philippines 900 201,600 Source: SovEcon, a Moscow-based agricultural analyst group. (Writing by Robin Paxton, editing by Jane Baird)