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POLL-Analysts lift bets on S.Korea rate rise in H2

Published 03/11/2010, 01:24 AM
Updated 03/11/2010, 01:28 AM

(For full coverage, double-click [ID:nTOE62A00X])

By Cheon Jong-woo

SEOUL, March 11 (Reuters) - Analysts further raised their bets South Korea's central bank will start raising rates during the second half of the year, with some scaling back expectations from the first half, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Ten out of the 15 analysts surveyed after the central bank meeting predicted the Bank of Korea would raise interest rates in the second half, compared with six out of 11 analysts with such a view in the previous poll last month. [ID:nTOE62907K]

The central bank voewd to leave the base rate, the 7-day repurchase agreement rate , at record-low for some time in the face of uncertainty over the economic outlook and pressure from the government. [ID:nTOE62A00X]

"No parting shot here. Governor Lee sounded less hawkish than his last press conference and a rate hike appears unlikely until the third quarter. We'd rather see rates go up earlier, but, in terms of data, theres no smoking gun that could justify a hike soon," said Frederic Neumann, senior Asia economist at HSBC.

Poll results (change in basis point in the base rate):

APRIL NEXT MOVE CHANGE DBS Bank Hold May or June +25 Nomura International Hold June +25 Taurus Investment & Securities Hold June +25 Hanwha Securities Hold June or July +25 Hyundai Securities Hold June or July +25 Eugene Futures Hold July +25 Samsung Securities Hold July +25 Tong Yang Securities Hold July +25 Woori Investment & Securities Hold July +25 HSBC Hold Q3 +25 Kiwoom Securities Hold Q3 +25 Korea Investment & Securities Hold Q3 +25 Shinhan Investment Hold Q3 +25 HI Investment & Securities Hold Nov +25 NH Investment & Securities Hold Q4 +25 (Additional reporting by Lee Eun-yul; Editing by Yoo Choonsik)

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