Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

INTERVIEW-US economist Feldstein: 2010 double dip is big risk

Published 01/14/2010, 07:32 AM
Updated 01/14/2010, 07:36 AM

* Another recession in 2010 is "significant risk"-Feldstein

* US govt needs to establish confidence about fiscal deficit

* US bond yields to rise further, but curve to stay steep

BEIJING, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces a "significant risk" of another recession in 2010, unless the Obama administration promotes confidence it can manage a growing fiscal deficit, a prominent Harvard University economist said on Thursday.

Without public approval, namely from investors, U.S. bond yields will climb, taxes will rise and a fragile recovery will be short lived, Martin Feldstein told Reuters in an interview.

"I don't think the Obama administration is doing anything to reduce that risk. They are assuming the momentum is there," said Feldstein, who is also president-emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end.

He declined to call the chances of another recession after the U.S. economy shrank for four consecutive quarters before growing in the third quarter of 2009. He characterised the risk of a double dip back into recession as "significant."

Feldstein is a critic of the structure of the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus programs, though thinks additional government spending will do more harm than good. At this point, the U.S. government needs to think about the debts it has accrued, he said.

"They need to bring back a greater sense of confidence that the fiscal situation will not get out of control."

The U.S. budget deficit in the last fiscal year grew to $1.4 trillion, or 10 percent of economic output, the largest shortfall since World War Two.

Long-maturity U.S. bond yields have been creeping higher over the last year. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 6-month high at the end of 2009.

Feldstein believes bond yields will continue to rise, though he said central banks such as China's will most likely keep recycling the U.S. dollars bought in the market by buying short-dated Treasuries.

That will keep the yield curve, the difference between short-dated and long-dated debt, steep.

In China for meetings with government officials, Feldstein said he did not think the U.S. government would allow trade tensions between the United States and China to escalate further this year.

He also expected Beijing to loosen its grip on the yuan exchange rate and allow it to strengthen, as long as U.S. officials do not keep publicly pressuring China to act on its exchange rate policy.

The yuan strengthened more than 6 percent between January 2008 and July 2008 to around 6.83 per dollar . Since then it has been flat as China rode out the financial crisis.

"The RMB will not be a big source of conflict," he said.

(Writing by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.