(Repeats to fix dateline)
* Low consumer demand may offset public spending stimulus
* Markets pleased with devaluation, S&P upgrades
* Inflation and oil prices key factors in 2010 growth
By Frank Jack Daniel
CARACAS, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Venezuela's economy will likely stay in the doldrums this year even after a devaluation that was aimed at kick-starting the private sector and raising government spending and also triggered a frenzy of shopping.
On Friday, President Hugo Chavez created a dual exchange rate that sharply devalued the bolivar currency to 2.6 and 4.3 against the dollar, markedly helping the oil exporter's fiscal situation and making Venezuelan businesses more competitive.
Markets responded favorably to the move, with the price of OPEC nation Venezuela's bonds soaring on Monday. The gains were pared slightly on Tuesday although JPMorgan raised Venezuela bonds to overweight.
But with the import-reliant country in a stiff recession, the chilling effect of price rises on consumption over the coming months could outweigh the stimulus of increased spending as Chavez campaigns for parliamentary elections in September.
Other factors, especially the price of oil and a long drought, will also influence growth and inflation.
Economists and some of the president's closest aides have long said the severe overvaluation of the bolivar was hurting government finances and damaging non-oil exports in South America's leading crude exporter.
Chavez, who took office 11 years ago, avoided the word 'devaluation' and says the decision was taken primarily to wean the country off its overwhelming dependence on oil revenues.
"We have to escape this rent-based oil model and this year we will make a huge step in that direction. Always with one aim: the economy must serve man, with a social function," he wrote in a newspaper column after the devaluation.
The tiered rate system is similar to a failed policy implemented after a 1983 devaluation known as "Black Friday" when prices crashed for Venezuela's biggest export.
This time, the devaluation was also forced by a slide in oil prices undermining the bolivar.
RBS Global Banking and Markets economist Boris Segura said he now forecast zero growth for Venezuela this year. Before the devaluation he predicted GDP would grow 1.5 percent in 2010.
"Venezuela is not going to grow this year," Segura said. "This is the price you pay for delaying the adjustment."
Venezuela stuck to its previous exchange rate of 2.15 per dollar for five years despite double-digit inflation that was 25 percent last year -- among the highest in the world.
Before the devaluation, Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez predicted growth of 0.5 percent for 2010. Other analysts also predicted little growth but say increased spending will help.
Chavez is sending mixed messages to the private sector, threatening to expropriate firms that raise prices without good cause, but offering a billion dollars of credits and subsidies to boost industry and calling for talks with business.
The weaker currency makes Venezuelan products relatively cheaper compared to imports, but firms will remain wary of investing in a recession. They have also faced years of browbeating from the president, who has nationalized much of the country's industry.
"More exports and production will not happen without a minimum level of legal security and less bureaucratic hurdles," said Venezuelan political analyst Edgardo Lander.
MINI-BOOM
Inured to economic chaos after decades of mismanagement, Venezuelans responded to the news by rushing to the shops, convinced their savings will lose value and prices will rise.
Sales of TVs, computers and fridges will rocket this week. But overall consumption, one of the main drivers of growth in the shopping-mall mad country, is likely to stay depressed for the next few months.
Economists all agree the devaluation will have an impact on prices but they are divided on how much, with the most pessimistic predicting up to 60 percent inflation this year.
Most, however, say the upward pressure will be less severe because about half of all imports already are bought with black market dollars, which cost around 6 bolivars each.
In theory some of those imports will now come in at a rate of 4.3, and the bolivar should also strengthen on the black market.
Economists estimate increased bolivar income from the devaluation will roughly halve Venezuela's fiscal deficit to about 3 percent, although calculating deficits is not an exact science in Venezuela since precise data is hard to come by.
A smaller budget gap pleases debt-holders as it means the country need not borrow so much going forward and has more funds to pay its current debts.
"With the devaluation essentially doubling revenues fiscal concerns are eased," David Beker, head of Latin America Economics at Bank of America, said in a note. "Still on a more medium term basis, we believe the key factor to monitor is oil." (Reporting by Frank Jack Daniel, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)