Wolfe Research cuts Spotify stock rating amid margin concerns

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 01/17/2025, 06:54 AM
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Wolfe Research has downgraded Spotify shares from Outperform to Peer Perform, signaling a shift in their outlook on the audio streaming company's stock. The downgrade comes despite Spotify's impressive 146.8% return over the past year and current trading price of $490.34, near its 52-week high of $506.47.

The research firm expressed concerns about the company's potential for margin growth, citing the "renters' economics" in the music industry as a limiting factor. According to InvestingPro, Spotify maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.2 out of 5.

The downgrade follows an analysis of Spotify's valuation and market dynamics. While the company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 135.59 and maintains a gross profit margin of 28.74%, Wolfe Research noted that the inherent structure of the music industry, where content is largely licensed rather than owned, poses a challenge to achieving long-term gross margins (GMs) of 35-40%.

This would likely require Spotify to continue investing in new business areas beyond its core music streaming service. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed valuation metrics and 18 additional key insights about Spotify's financial position.

In addition to the margin concerns, Wolfe Research pointed out that Spotify's topline growth projections might be overly optimistic. Factors such as recent price increases, reductions in marketing spend, and the nearing saturation of developed markets could hamper revenue growth moving forward.

The downgrade reflects a more cautious stance on the stock's future performance, as the research firm adjusts its rating to align with its analysis of Spotify's financial outlook and market position. Wolfe Research's commentary suggests that while Spotify maintains a solid standing, the company faces significant challenges that could affect its stock valuation and overall financial health.

Investors and market watchers will be keeping an eye on Spotify's strategic moves as it navigates the competitive landscape of the music streaming industry, especially in light of the concerns raised by Wolfe Research regarding the company's growth and profitability prospects. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 18.52% over the last twelve months.

For comprehensive analysis of Spotify's market position and future potential, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers all crucial aspects of the company's performance and outlook.

In other recent news, Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) has been the focus of several analysts' reports. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating on Spotify, emphasizing opportunities in lossless audio and user interest in exclusive content.

UBS also maintained its Buy rating, highlighting the company's impressive 20% growth in top-line revenue and increased free cash flow. Goldman Sachs maintained a positive stance on Spotify, focusing on the company's pricing strategy and potential in the audiobook market.

However, IndeRes initiated coverage on Spotify with a Reduce rating, questioning the risk/reward balance due to the company's current trading multiples. Canaccord Genuity raised its price target for Spotify, citing the company's solid performance and significant improvement in gross margins and operating profit.

These developments follow Spotify's robust financial performance, with an 18.5% revenue growth and strong cash flows that well exceed debt obligations. The company's premium subscription business has shown significant growth with the average revenue per user (ARPU) increasing by 11% year over year. The company's user base also grew by 14 million, reaching 640 million, while subscribers rose by 6 million to total 252 million.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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