On Monday, Citi analysts, adjusted their outlook on Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE), reducing the price target to $12.00 from the previous $15.00, while still holding a Buy rating on the company's shares.
The revision reflects a significant drop in Vale's market capitalization to $36.83 billion, with the stock currently trading at $8.63, near its 52-week low of $8.62, marking its lowest level since 2016, barring a brief period during the COVID-19 pandemic. InvestingPro analysis shows the stock has declined 38.88% over the past year.
The analyst noted that Vale's valuation seems inexpensive when compared to its average EBITDA of $18 billion over the last decade, which was achieved with iron ore prices at around $96 per ton, despite higher current costs. This assessment aligns with InvestingPro data showing Vale trading at a P/E ratio of just 4.74 and maintaining impressive gross profit margins of 39.06%.
According to InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis, the stock appears significantly undervalued at current levels. The reduced price target is likely indicative of the market's current skepticism towards iron ore, nickel, and the economic outlooks of Brazil and China.
City pointed out that iron ore supply to China from countries other than Brazil and Australia has seen a substantial decline, falling by approximately 130 million tons on an annualized basis from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of the same year.
This could potentially lead to a surprise increase in iron ore prices in 2025. Nevertheless, investor sentiment might remain unmoved due to the anticipated increase in supply from the Simandou mine.
The report also suggests that Vale shareholders may have to depend largely on capital returns. Citi's analysis projects a minimum dividend yield of 9%, which they consider attractive. InvestingPro data reveals an even more impressive current dividend yield of 10.64%, with the company maintaining dividend payments for 24 consecutive years.
This is supported by a 6% spot free cash flow (FCF) yield that is expected to increase to around 15% in 2027 as approximately $2 billion in Samarco-related payments conclude. For detailed dividend analysis and 12 additional exclusive insights about Vale, subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report.
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