Looking ahead to 2025, B.Riley's analyst projects a 30% surge in loan originations for Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), with revenue anticipated to reach $814 million, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, and EBITDA expected to climb to $115 million.
This forecast would signify a substantial acceleration and improvement over the company's performance in 2024. Current InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value, with a high price-to-book ratio of 8.84x and notable volatility (Beta of 2.27).
Despite the positive outlook and increased price target, the firm maintains a Neutral stance on Upstart stock, with the new price target based on 5.5 times the FY25 estimated revenue, an increase from the previous multiple of 4.0. For deeper insights into Upstart's valuation metrics and 12 additional ProTips, consider exploring the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
Upstart, a fintech firm, has shown a resurgence in origination growth, exceeding 30% in the third quarter of 2024. This momentum is expected to continue through the following year. Contributing factors to this positive outlook include lower interest rates, a robust job market, and subsiding inflation, all of which are fostering a more favorable lending atmosphere for fintech entities like Upstart and improving consumers' debt repayment conditions.
The Upstart Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Index (UMI), a metric that reflects macroeconomic forces that can affect default rates, has decreased from a peak of 1.68 in May 2024 to a recent two-year low of 1.39. This decline is indicative of an environment less conducive to defaults. Additionally, a trend of improving credit performance has been observed across the consumer lending sector in the second half of 2024.
Internal enhancements and the introduction of new products are also key to Upstart's strategy. A significant 91% of loans processed by the company are now fully automated, and Upstart is expanding its product line. This includes a new offering aimed at super prime borrowers, named T-Prime, and a home equity line of credit (HELOC) now available in 34 states. These initiatives are expected to increase the company's total addressable market (TAM).
Furthermore, Upstart is actively diversifying its funding sources and reducing its balance sheet's loan exposure. The value of loans held at fair value by the company decreased to $656 million in the third quarter of 2024, a drop from $1.16 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Looking ahead to 2025, B.Riley's analyst projects a 30% surge in loan originations for Upstart, with revenue anticipated to reach $814 million, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, and EBITDA expected to climb to $115 million.
This forecast would signify a substantial acceleration and improvement over the company's performance in 2024. Current InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is trading above its Fair Value, with a high price-to-book ratio of 8.84x and notable volatility (Beta of 2.27).
Despite the positive outlook and increased price target, the firm maintains a Neutral stance on Upstart stock, with the new price target based on 5.5 times the FY25 estimated revenue, an increase from the previous multiple of 4.0. For deeper insights into Upstart's valuation metrics and 12 additional ProTips, consider exploring the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Upstart Holdings has been the focus of several significant developments. Needham has upgraded Upstart to a Buy rating and set a $100 price target, reflecting confidence in the company's potential for growth and stability. This follows a robust third quarter for Upstart, which saw a 43% sequential increase in lending volume and a significant rise in revenue. Despite a GAAP net loss of $7 million, the company projects total Q4 revenues of approximately $180 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $5 million.
Redburn-Atlantic has upgraded Upstart's stock from Neutral to Buy, adjusting the price target for the shares to $95.00, and JPMorgan has downgraded Upstart's stock from Neutral to Underweight, despite raising the price target to $57. Meanwhile, BTIG has upgraded Upstart's stock rating from Sell to Neutral, acknowledging a significant increase in the company's stock value and the positive performance of Upstart's loan volumes.
Upstart has also announced plans for a private offering of $425 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, aimed at qualified institutional buyers. The proceeds from this offering will be used for general corporate purposes, potentially including repaying or retiring existing debt. Lastly, Upstart has secured a strategic partnership with Blue Owl, guaranteeing up to $2 billion in loan purchases over the next 18 months.
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