On Friday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook for Ascendis Pharma (NASDAQ:ASND), lowering the price target to $153 from the previous $160, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment followed the company's earnings report, which indicated that Skytrofa's revenue of €47 million fell short of TD Cowen's €55 million estimate and the consensus of €61 million, due to increased sales deductions. Additionally, the firm noted that Ascendis Pharma has revised its FY24 guidance downwards.
The analyst from TD Cowen highlighted several upcoming milestones for Ascendis Pharma. The company is expected to present Phase 2 data for Turner syndrome in the fourth quarter and initiate a basket study for other growth hormone indications in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, Yorvipath generated €8.5 million in revenue, which was in line with the consensus estimate of €8 million. A U.S. launch of Yorvipath is anticipated in mid-January.
Ascendis Pharma is also progressing with regulatory submissions for its C-Type Natriuretic Peptide (CNP) product. The New Drug Application (NDA) and Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) filings are on schedule for the first and third quarters of 2025, respectively. The analyst noted that the Phase 3 data for CNP appears competitive and supports a significant opportunity in the market.
Lastly, the analyst mentioned a deal with Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) (referred to as NVO in the context), which is expected to offer long-term upside for Ascendis Pharma. The specifics of this deal were not detailed in the provided context, but it was presented as a positive development for the company.
In other recent news, Ascendis Pharma's third-quarter financial results revealed a net loss of €99.2 million, which was lower than Oppenheimer's anticipated loss of €110.2 million. The company's top-line revenue and GAAP EPS did not meet analyst predictions, continuing a trend from the previous quarter. Despite a strong volume growth of 60% year-over-year, higher sales deductions impacted Ascendis Pharma's revenues. Consequently, the company revised its full-year 2024 revenue guidance for Skytrofa downwards to €200 million - €220 million.
Citi and Oppenheimer adjusted their price targets for Ascendis Pharma, maintaining a Buy and Outperform rating respectively. Citi highlighted the potential for Ascendis Pharma's stock to be driven by the upcoming launch of Yorvipath in 2025, with sales in the European Union picking up momentum. The firm also pointed out several upcoming catalysts that could influence Ascendis Pharma's performance, including Phase 2 data in Turner syndrome for Skytrofa expected in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Ascendis Pharma also reported a strategic collaboration with Novo Nordisk, which could lead to a $100 million upfront payment and royalties. The company anticipates achieving cash flow breakeven by the end of 2025. An NDA for TransCon CNP, another Ascendis product, is expected to be submitted in Q1 2025.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement the analysis from TD Cowen, recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context on Ascendis Pharma's financial position. The company's market capitalization stands at $7.43 billion, reflecting investor expectations despite current challenges. Notably, Ascendis Pharma's revenue growth has been impressive, with a 166.54% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, aligning with the positive outlook on products like Skytrofa and Yorvipath.
However, InvestingPro Tips highlight some potential concerns. One tip indicates that analysts do not anticipate the company will be profitable this year, which is consistent with the reported operating loss and the downward revision of FY24 guidance mentioned in the article. Another tip notes that short-term obligations exceed liquid assets, suggesting potential liquidity challenges as the company continues to invest in its pipeline and product launches.
These insights provide a more comprehensive picture of Ascendis Pharma's financial health and market position. Investors considering this stock may find value in exploring the additional 5 tips available on InvestingPro to gain a deeper understanding of the company's prospects.
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