On Friday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterated a positive outlook on Origin Bancorp (NYSE:OBK), reiterating an Outperform rating with a $42.00 price target.
The firm's analyst highlighted the bank's potential for improved profitability as a key driver for its recommendation. Origin Bancorp is expected to reveal a plan to enhance profitability when it reports its fourth-quarter earnings for 2024 in January.
The specifics of the profitability improvement plan have not been disclosed, but the analyst anticipates that Origin Bancorp aims to achieve a 1.0% return on assets (ROA) runrate by 2026. This target is a significant increase from the current forecasted 2026 ROA of 0.81%. The analyst believes that reaching this goal could significantly enhance the bank's earnings per share (EPS).
According to the firm's projections, if Origin Bancorp attains a 1% ROA run-rate by 2026, it could elevate the estimated EPS for that year to $3.35 or higher, marking an increase of over 20%. This improvement in earnings would also impact the bank's valuation, potentially leading to shares trading at 9.9 times forward earnings. This valuation would represent an 11% discount compared to the KRX index's multiple of 11.1 times the estimated earnings for 2026.
Moreover, the analyst suggests that achieving the targeted ROA would allow Origin Bancorp's shares to trade at 1.0 times the projected tangible book value (TBV) a year out. This outlook is part of KBW's Holiday Opportunities series, where the firm recommends stocks to investors for the upcoming year. Origin Bancorp's forthcoming plan to boost profitability is seen as a compelling opportunity for investors as the company prepares for the year ahead.
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