On Tuesday, H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on shares of NovoCure Ltd. (NASDAQ:NVCR) and increased the price target to $38 from the previous $30. This adjustment comes in response to the successful outcome of a pivotal Phase 3 trial for a pancreatic cancer treatment.
NovoCure revealed on December 2 that its PANOVA-3 Phase 3 trial, which tests the combination of TTFields with chemotherapy agents gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel, has met its primary endpoint of overall survival (OS) in the treatment of first-line pancreatic cancer.
The study enrolled 571 patients with locally advanced, unresectable pancreatic cancer who had not received prior treatment. The median OS for patients receiving the TTFields therapy was 16.2 months, compared to 14.16 months for those in the control group. This represents a statistically significant two-month median OS benefit, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.819 and a p-value of 0.039.
Patients treated with TTFields also showed a 13% improvement in OS rate at 12 months and a 33% improvement at 24 months. These results indicate not only an early survival benefit but also suggest that this benefit is sustained over the long term. The safety profile of TTFields was consistent with findings from previous studies.
The analyst from H.C. Wainwright expressed optimism regarding the Phase 3 trial's outcome, noting that it marks the first new mechanism of action (MoA) for pancreatic cancer treatment.
With expectations of NovoCure submitting a premarket approval (PMA) application in the United States in 2025 and seeking regulatory approvals in the European Union and Japan, the firm has increased the probability of success (POS) for the pancreatic cancer treatment to 70% from the initial 20%.
The market opportunity for pancreatic cancer treatment is seen as significant, with global peak sales projected to reach $1.7 billion by 2037. The anticipated launch of the treatment is set for 2026. This positive development has led to the reaffirmation of the Buy rating and the elevation of the price target for NovoCure shares.
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