Morgan Stanley upgrades O'Reilly stock to Overweight as cyclical pressures ease

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 01/21/2025, 06:13 AM
ORLY
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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded O'Reilly (NASDAQ:ORLY) Automotive's stock rating, citing a positive turn in the business cycle and a robust long-term outlook for the company. The firm shifted its stance from Equalweight to Overweight and increased the price target significantly from $1,150 to $1,450. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has demonstrated remarkable stability with an 18.35% return over the past year and trades with notably low price volatility.

Stifel analysts observed that after two years of decelerating demand in the Auto Parts aftermarket, they anticipate the cyclical challenges that the industry faced will ease in 2025. They believe that O'Reilly Automotive, as a leading company in the sector, will continue to gain market share and maintain strong profit margins, which is supported by its impressive 51.21% gross profit margin and steady revenue growth of 5.25% over the last twelve months.

The upgrade comes with a prediction that O'Reilly's comparable sales momentum will return to its mid-single-digit percentage long-term trend over the next two years. This follows a period of lackluster sales performance. Morgan Stanley's analysts attribute their optimistic outlook to several factors, including the stabilization of finances among low-income households, potential short-term benefits from lower gas prices, and a recovery in the number of miles driven.

The firm also points to long-term structural growth drivers and O'Reilly's dominant position in the market as reasons for the upgraded rating and price target. They expect the company to continue to strengthen its lead in the industry. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a GOOD financial health score, though the stock currently trades above its calculated Fair Value. Investors seeking deeper insights can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers, covering this and 1,400+ other top US stocks.

Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that the effects of high inflation in 2022 and the phasing out of supplemental assistance programs in 2023 have been absorbed, which, along with modestly higher wages at the lower end, should stabilize consumer finances. These economic shifts are seen as key elements contributing to the anticipated improvement in O'Reilly's business performance.

In other recent news, O'Reilly Automotive has seen several major developments.

TD Cowen analysts, led by Max Rakhlenko, raised their price target on O'Reilly Automotive shares to $1,400 and maintained a Buy rating, citing the company's potential for market share growth within the Do-It-For-Me sector. BMO Capital also initiated coverage on O'Reilly Automotive with an Outperform rating and a price target of $1,400, highlighting the company's advantageous position in the growing but fragmented market.

Moreover, O'Reilly Automotive announced a $2 billion increase in its share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $27.75 billion. This strategic move is expected to manage the company's capital structure and potentially increase shareholder value. The company also reported Q3 earnings per share (EPS) of $10.55, slightly missing estimates, and revised its 2024 guidance downward, expecting EPS between $40.60 and $41.10.

On the analyst front, Roth/MKM maintained a Buy rating on O'Reilly Automotive, setting a target price of $1,337. Other firms such as Mizuho (NYSE:MFG), Truist Securities, TD Cowen, UBS, and Jefferies have also raised their price targets for the company. O'Reilly Automotive also expanded its geographical footprint, opening 47 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 111 for the year.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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