On Wednesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) initiated coverage on LifeMD Inc (NASDAQ:LFMD) with a Neutral rating and a price target of $7.00. The firm's analysis points to LifeMD's significant growth in 2024, driven by the successful uptake of its virtual 'GLP-1 Weight Management' program within its core Telehealth segment. This program, which was introduced in mid-2023, provides access to both branded and compounded GLP-1 drugs for obesity patients, with the latter making up approximately 80% of the total.
According to InvestingPro data, the company has demonstrated impressive growth with revenue increasing 42.16% in the last twelve months, supported by strong gross profit margins of 89.64%.
Despite the anticipation of approximately 37% revenue growth in 2024, an increase from around 28% in 2023, LifeMD's shares have declined by roughly 20% year-to-date. Investors are concerned about the sustainability of LifeMD's subscription revenue, particularly in relation to GLP-1 compounding. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock may be undervalued at current levels, with analyst targets ranging from $10 to $16 per share. Get access to 8 additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics with an InvestingPro subscription.
The analyst projects that over half of LifeMD's revenue will stem from Weight Management programs by 2026, up from 0% in 2022. Mizuho's model assumes a total EBITDA of around $53 million in 2026, which includes subscriptions with GLP-1 drugs sourced from compounding pharmacies. Without these subscriptions, the EBITDA is expected to be about $23 million.
The price target of $7 and the Neutral rating are based on six times Mizuho's EBITDA forecast for 2026, excluding GLP-1 compounding-related subscription revenues. This equates to roughly twelve times the EBITDA when excluding this segment. The firm's stance reflects a cautious optimism about the company's performance, acknowledging its growth while also considering the potential risks associated with its revenue streams.
In other recent news, LifeMD, a prominent telehealth company, has announced a robust growth in its Q3 2024 financial results. The company reported a 38% increase in total revenues, reaching $53.4 million, with a significant surge in telehealth revenue by 65%.
Adjusted EBITDA also witnessed a substantial rise, totaling $2.5 million, marking a 200% increase from the previous quarter. LifeMD also launched a new National Pharmacy in Pennsylvania and now caters to nearly 270,000 patient subscribers.
These recent developments have led LifeMD to raise its revenue guidance for telehealth to $151-$152 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $6-$7 million for the full year of 2024. It is also noteworthy that the company ended the quarter with a cash flow from operations exceeding $6.2 million and $37.6 million in cash.
While the company reported a GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $5.9 million, or $0.14 per share, it is also planning to expand into new clinical areas including behavioral health, Type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular health.
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