On Tuesday, Stifel has increased the price target for Janux Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JANX) to $115.00, up from the previous $70.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The company's shares have shown remarkable momentum, delivering a 344% return over the past year.
According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for JANX range from $25 to $200, reflecting diverse views on the company's potential. The firm's decision comes after reviewing the phase 1 update for JANX007 (PSMA-TRACTr), a therapeutic candidate for prostate cancer. This new data has led to an adjustment in the probability of success (PoS) for the second-line (2L) and third-line (3L) metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treatments to 50% and 65%, respectively, an increase from the initial 35% and 50%.
The revised PoS percentages have prompted Stifel to model risk-adjusted sales of $1.7 billion from these two treatment opportunities. The unadjusted forecast is $3 billion, which is considered potentially conservative in light of Novartis (SIX:NOVN)' sales guidance of $5 billion for its comparable product, Pluvicto.
With a current market capitalization of $2.11 billion and a strong financial position (current ratio of 38.8), InvestingPro rates Janux's overall financial health as Fair. Stifel's market model for prostate cancer now assumes that JANX007 will capture a 20% market share in 2L treatments and a 40% market share in 3L treatments.
Stifel's current projections suggest a pathway to market that includes randomized trials with anticipated approvals by 2029. However, these estimates are subject to revisions based on upcoming developments, including the optimization of dosing and expansion cohorts. The firm is also looking ahead to updated data from phase 1a and 1b trials for JANX007 in 2L and 3L patients, expected in 2025 and beyond, which may further support and de-risk the current forecasts.
Additionally, there is potential for further upside from JANX008 (EGFR-TRACTr), with phase 1a updates anticipated in 2025. These updates, according to Stifel, are not currently factored into their or investors' valuations, suggesting that positive results could lead to additional positive revisions in the future. For deeper insights into Janux's financial health metrics and 12 additional ProTips, consider subscribing to InvestingPro, where you'll find comprehensive analysis tools and exclusive financial indicators.
In other recent news, Janux Therapeutics has been the subject of several analyst updates following promising clinical results. William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating, citing significant clinical activity in the company's drug JANX007, which is being tested for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). In light of these findings, the firm increased its peak sales estimate for JANX007 in the United States to $3.0 billion.
Similarly, Leerink Partners and Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price targets for Janux to $91 and $200 respectively, while maintaining their positive ratings. H.C. Wainwright and Stifel also maintained their Buy ratings, with H.C. Wainwright setting a new stock price target of $70.
These adjustments followed the release of encouraging clinical data from Janux's Phase 1 study for JANX007, which demonstrated high prostate-specific antigen response rates. Furthermore, Janux reported significant Q2 revenue growth, reaching approximately $8.9 million, primarily due to a milestone payment from its collaboration with Merck (NS:PROR).
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